Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-13 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
180
Lineups
162
HR BOARD 2026-08-13 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.5pp
P 10.9
F 13.2
V 8.0
5.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 7
 13.2%Fangorn 8.5%market +4.7pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 9.0
4.2pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
03
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.5pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 11.3
1.9pp 1.102xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 9.2%market +4.1pp
P 11.4
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 955 avg 3 books
05
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.4pp
P 11.3
F 13.2
V 10.4
2.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
06
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.5pp
P 11.5
F 13.2
V 10.3
2.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
07
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.2pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 11.1%market +1.9pp
P 14.1
F 13.0
V 10.7
3.4pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
09
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.6pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 11.0
2.3pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.2
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
11
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 7
 13.3%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 9.6
3.7pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
12
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.9pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 13.2
1.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
13
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 12.4%market +0.9pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 12.0
1.3pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
14
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 13.3
0.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
15
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 13.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 11.0
2.3pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
16
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
 12.9%Fangorn 13.4%market -0.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.9
V 11.2
1.7pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 14.6%market -1.2pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.6pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
18
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 12.5
0.9pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
19
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
20
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
21
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 14.9
1.5pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
22
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 12.1
1.3pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
23
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
24
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
25
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.5pp
P 11.3
F 13.2
V 9.4
3.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
26
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.4
F 12.8
V 9.4
3.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.1
F 12.8
V 12.9
3.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.1pp
P 11.3
F 11.6
V 12.0
0.6pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
29
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.6pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 13.3
1.6pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
30
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 12.0
1.3pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
31
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
32
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
33
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
34
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 15.3
1.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
35
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.5
1.9pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
36
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.5pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
37
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
38
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
39
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
40
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.0pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 14.6
1.2pp 1.102xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
41
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.6pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 13.7
0.5pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
42
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.9
1.8pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
43
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 25.6%market -12.5pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 13.4
0.6pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
44
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2509roster/transaction rows
Lineups162confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.