Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-13 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Steven Kwan
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2 |
11.3%Valinor | 8.7%market | +2.3pp |
P
11.7
F
13.2
V
11.3
|
1.9pp | 1.102xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5 |
13.2%Valinor | 12.3%market | +0.4pp |
P
12.0
F
13.2
V
13.2
|
1.2pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 7 |
9.0%Valinor | 8.5%market | +0.2pp |
P
11.6
F
13.2
V
9.0
|
4.2pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5 |
10.4%Valinor | 9.8%market | +0.2pp |
P
11.3
F
13.2
V
10.4
|
2.9pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Brendan Donovan
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6 |
9.6%Valinor | 9.2%market | +0.1pp |
P
11.4
F
13.2
V
9.6
|
3.6pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 955 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6 |
8.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.0pp |
P
10.9
F
13.2
V
8.0
|
5.2pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2 |
13.3%Valinor | 13.3%market | -0.1pp |
P
13.5
F
13.3
V
13.3
|
0.2pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 11.8%market | -0.1pp |
P
14.4
F
13.4
V
12.2
|
2.3pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 09 | IN | BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3 |
15.6%Valinor | 15.3%market | -0.3pp |
P
14.1
F
13.4
V
15.6
|
2.2pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4 |
14.9%Valinor | 15.0%market | -0.6pp |
P
13.8
F
13.4
V
14.9
|
1.5pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5 |
14.5%Valinor | 14.8%market | -0.7pp |
P
12.8
F
13.3
V
14.5
|
1.8pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3 |
10.7%Valinor | 11.1%market | -0.9pp |
P
14.1
F
13.0
V
10.7
|
3.4pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 765 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5 |
10.3%Valinor | 10.7%market | -0.9pp |
P
11.5
F
13.2
V
10.3
|
2.8pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 795 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 4 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.0%market | -1.0pp |
P
13.2
F
13.3
V
12.0
|
1.3pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 15 | Lineup pending | CWS vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4 |
11.0%Valinor | 11.7%market | -1.2pp |
P
12.8
F
13.3
V
11.0
|
2.3pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6 |
10.1%Valinor | 11.0%market | -1.4pp |
P
12.2
F
13.4
V
10.1
|
3.2pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 770 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5 |
13.2%Valinor | 14.5%market | -1.9pp |
P
14.1
F
13.4
V
13.2
|
0.9pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 565 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1 |
14.0%Valinor | 15.3%market | -1.9pp |
P
14.3
F
13.4
V
14.0
|
0.9pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1 |
12.7%Valinor | 14.1%market | -1.9pp |
P
14.3
F
13.4
V
12.7
|
1.6pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6 |
11.2%Valinor | 13.0%market | -2.2pp |
P
12.5
F
12.9
V
11.2
|
1.7pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1 |
12.5%Valinor | 14.3%market | -2.3pp |
P
13.4
F
13.2
V
12.5
|
0.9pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 575 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6 |
11.0%Valinor | 13.1%market | -2.6pp |
P
13.1
F
13.3
V
11.0
|
2.3pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 7 |
9.6%Valinor | 12.5%market | -2.9pp |
P
12.8
F
13.3
V
9.6
|
3.7pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4 |
12.1%Valinor | 15.0%market | -3.4pp |
P
13.4
F
13.3
V
12.1
|
1.3pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3 |
13.4%Valinor | 25.1%market | -12.6pp |
P
13.8
F
13.2
V
13.4
|
0.6pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 285 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3 |
13.8%Valinor | 26.5%market | -13.6pp |
P
13.5
F
13.4
V
13.8
|
0.5pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
12.9%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.9pp |
P
9.1
F
12.8
V
12.9
|
3.8pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1 |
9.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.4pp |
P
9.4
F
12.8
V
9.4
|
3.4pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
José Tena
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 6 |
9.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.4pp |
P
11.3
F
13.2
V
9.4
|
3.9pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1 |
12.0%Valinor | 10.5%market | +1.1pp |
P
11.3
F
11.6
V
12.0
|
0.6pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4 |
15.2%Valinor | 15.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
14.4
F
13.4
V
15.2
|
1.8pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5 |
13.3%Valinor | 15.2%market | -2.5pp |
P
11.7
F
13.2
V
13.3
|
1.6pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1 |
14.4%Valinor | 16.7%market | -2.9pp |
P
13.9
F
13.4
V
14.4
|
1.0pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 34 | IN | NYY vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5 |
16.2%Valinor | 18.6%market | -3.0pp |
P
14.4
F
13.4
V
16.2
|
2.8pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Ben Rice
NYY
IN
|
NYY vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.4pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
12.9
|
0.8pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3 |
15.3%Valinor | 18.2%market | -3.6pp |
P
14.2
F
13.4
V
15.3
|
1.8pp | 1.034xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4 |
12.0%Valinor | 15.6%market | -4.1pp |
P
13.2
F
13.3
V
12.0
|
1.3pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Mike Trout
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2 |
13.9%Valinor | 18.8%market | -5.5pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
13.9
|
0.5pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2 |
14.0%Valinor | 19.1%market | -5.8pp |
P
14.0
F
13.4
V
14.0
|
0.6pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
José Ramírez
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1 |
14.6%Valinor | 19.9%market | -6.0pp |
P
14.6
F
13.4
V
14.6
|
1.2pp | 1.102xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1 |
12.5%Valinor | 18.2%market | -6.3pp |
P
14.4
F
13.4
V
12.5
|
1.9pp | 1.138xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Jo Adell
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4 |
13.2%Valinor | 19.1%market | -6.6pp |
P
13.0
F
13.4
V
13.2
|
0.4pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3 |
14.9%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.1pp |
P
13.1
F
13.2
V
14.9
|
1.8pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3 |
13.7%Valinor | 20.5%market | -7.6pp |
P
13.2
F
13.4
V
13.7
|
0.5pp | 0.957xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus2509roster/transaction rows
Lineups162confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.