Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
291
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 3
 14.9%Palantir 11.1%market +3.8pp
P 14.9
F 11.7
V 11.5
3.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 6
 10.8%Palantir 7.7%market +3.1pp
P 10.8
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
 11.6%Palantir 8.9%market +2.8pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 10.1
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
04
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 13.5%Palantir 11.0%market +2.5pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 9.8
3.7pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 5
 11.2%Palantir 9.8%market +1.4pp
P 11.2
F 12.4
V 10.3
2.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
06
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1
 15.3%Palantir 13.9%market +1.3pp
P 15.3
F 14.1
V 13.8
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
07
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 13.1%Palantir 11.8%market +1.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
08
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
 9.8%Palantir 8.7%market +1.1pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 10.8
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
09
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 12.4%market +0.9pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
10
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 12.3%Palantir 11.7%market +0.6pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 11.1
1.3pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
 10.6%Palantir 10.1%market +0.5pp
P 10.6
F 11.7
V 11.1
1.2pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
12
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 12.0%Palantir 11.7%market +0.4pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
13
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 10.8%Palantir 10.5%market +0.3pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 9.1
2.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
14
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 14.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
15
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 7
 12.1%Palantir 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
16
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
 10.7%Palantir 11.5%market -0.8pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 9.5
2.9pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 770 avg 3 books
17
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
 10.8%Palantir 11.8%market -1.0pp
P 10.8
F 12.1
V 9.9
2.2pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
18
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
 10.9%Palantir 12.1%market -1.2pp
P 10.9
F 9.3
V 10.9
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
19
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
 13.8%Palantir 15.0%market -1.3pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.6
1.2pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
20
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 10.9%Palantir 12.4%market -1.5pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
21
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 12.2%Palantir 13.8%market -1.6pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 13.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
22
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 9.5%Palantir 11.2%market -1.7pp
P 9.5
F 11.7
V 10.8
2.2pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 795 avg 3 books
23
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 15.0%market -2.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 13.6
1.2pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
24
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 12.0%Palantir 14.1%market -2.1pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 13.8
1.9pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
25
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
 12.5%Palantir 14.8%market -2.3pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 14.3
2.4pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
26
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2
 14.6%Palantir 17.0%market -2.4pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
27
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 16.4%market -2.4pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
28
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
 13.0%Palantir 15.5%market -2.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.0pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
29
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 15.5%market -2.7pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 13.9
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
 13.3%Palantir 16.1%market -2.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
31
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 5
 10.4%Palantir 13.8%market -3.4pp
P 10.4
F 11.3
V 13.2
2.9pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
32
Carlos Santana AZ
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
 10.8%Palantir 14.5%market -3.7pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 11.0
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 11.8%Palantir 15.9%market -4.0pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 14.5
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
34
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 10.5%Palantir 14.8%market -4.3pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 13.5
3.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
35
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
 13.3%Palantir 12.5%market +0.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 13.0
0.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
36
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 7.8%Palantir 8.0%market -0.2pp
P 7.8
F 11.1
V 12.1
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
37
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 7.3%Palantir 8.0%market -0.7pp
P 7.3
F 10.9
V 11.5
4.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
 6.9%Palantir 8.0%market -1.1pp
P 6.9
F 10.9
V 13.4
6.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
39
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 9.5%Palantir 11.0%market -1.5pp
P 9.5
F 9.3
V 10.8
1.6pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
40
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 6.4%Palantir 8.0%market -1.6pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 9.9
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
 6.1%Palantir 8.0%market -1.9pp
P 6.1
F 9.9
V 10.9
4.8pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
42
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 13.0%Palantir 15.9%market -2.9pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
43
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 16.3%market -2.9pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
44
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 10.4%Palantir 13.3%market -2.9pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
45
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 12.8%Palantir 15.8%market -3.0pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 13.7
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
46
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
 11.4%Palantir 14.6%market -3.2pp
P 11.4
F 11.9
V 11.2
0.6pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
47
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
 10.1%Palantir 13.4%market -3.3pp
P 10.1
F 10.9
V 10.3
0.7pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
48
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 9.5%Palantir 12.8%market -3.3pp
P 9.5
F 11.7
V 13.0
3.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
49
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 17.7%market -3.6pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
50
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 13.3%Palantir 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 14.9
2.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
51
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
 12.7%Palantir 17.0%market -4.2pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.2
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
52
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
 11.5%Palantir 16.1%market -4.6pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
53
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 13.2%Palantir 18.0%market -4.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
54
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
 11.3%Palantir 16.5%market -5.2pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 12.7
1.3pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
55
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 13.4%Palantir 18.7%market -5.2pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 14.1
1.7pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
56
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 19.1%market -5.4pp
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
57
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 10.3%Palantir 15.8%market -5.4pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 13.9
3.6pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
58
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 12.5%Palantir 18.4%market -5.8pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 15.5
3.7pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
59
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
 13.5%Palantir 19.6%market -6.1pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 15.2
2.7pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
60
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 19.8%market -6.2pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
61
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
 12.2%Palantir 18.4%market -6.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 15.0
3.2pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
62
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 13.2%Palantir 19.4%market -6.2pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
63
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 20.4%market -7.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 13.4
1.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
64
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
 12.7%Palantir 20.2%market -7.5pp
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
65
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6
 11.5%Palantir 19.2%market -7.7pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 12.1
0.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 20.8%market -8.0pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 13.5
0.9pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
67
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 21.1%market -8.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 15.7
3.2pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
68
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
 9.9%Palantir 19.2%market -9.3pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
2.8pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
 12.6%Palantir 22.5%market -9.8pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
70
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
 12.6%Palantir 23.0%market -10.4pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 18.1
6.3pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
71
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 10.9%Palantir 21.7%market -10.8pp
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 15.0
4.1pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
72
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
 12.4%Palantir 25.6%market -13.2pp
P 12.4
F 11.3
V 14.7
3.4pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
73
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 27.0%market -14.2pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 15.0
2.6pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
74
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
 13.5%Palantir 29.8%market -16.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 18.2
5.7pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.