Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
291
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 6
12.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 10.8
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02 IN
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
12.1%Fangorn 8.9%market +3.3pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 10.1
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
11.7%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.0pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 10.8
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.6pp
P 11.2
F 12.4
V 10.3
2.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
05 IN
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
11.7%Fangorn 10.1%market +1.6pp
P 10.6
F 11.7
V 11.1
1.2pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
06 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
12.6%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 9.8
3.7pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
12.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.4pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 9.5
2.9pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08 IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
11.7%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.2pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 9.1
2.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.5
F 11.7
V 10.8
2.2pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
10 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
12.1%Fangorn 11.3%market +0.8pp
P 10.8
F 12.1
V 9.9
2.2pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.8pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
12 IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.7pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 11.1
1.3pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
13 IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 3
11.7%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.6pp
P 14.9
F 11.7
V 11.5
3.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
14 IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 7
12.4%Fangorn 11.9%market +0.5pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
15 IN
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 11.8%market +0.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
16 IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.4pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1
14.1%Fangorn 14.6%market -0.5pp
P 15.3
F 14.1
V 13.8
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
19 IN
STL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 13.8%market -1.2pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 13.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
12.6%Fangorn 14.3%market -1.7pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
21 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 13.8
1.9pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
22 IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 5
11.3%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.5pp
P 10.4
F 11.3
V 13.2
2.9pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
23 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.5pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.6
1.2pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
24 IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 13.6
1.2pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
25 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
12.1%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.7pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 13.5
3.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
26
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 14.5%market -2.8pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 11.0
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
9.3%Fangorn 12.1%market -2.9pp
P 10.9
F 9.3
V 10.9
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
28 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
11.9%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.9pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 14.3
2.4pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
29
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.0pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
12.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 13.9
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
31 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 16.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
32 IN
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
12.1%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.7pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 14.5
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
33 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.8pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
34 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.4pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
35 IN
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 7.8
F 11.1
V 12.1
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.3
F 10.9
V 11.5
4.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37 IN
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 6.9
F 10.9
V 13.4
6.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38 IN
CWS vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 9.9
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 IN
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.1
F 9.9
V 10.9
4.8pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40 IN
STL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 13.0
0.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 12.8%market -1.1pp
P 9.5
F 11.7
V 13.0
3.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
42
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
11.7%Fangorn 13.3%market -1.6pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
43 IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
9.3%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.7pp
P 9.5
F 9.3
V 10.8
1.6pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
44
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
10.9%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.6pp
P 10.1
F 10.9
V 10.3
0.7pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.7pp
P 11.4
F 11.9
V 11.2
0.6pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
46 IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 13.7
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
47 IN
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
12.1%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
49 IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.9pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 13.9
3.6pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 16.5%market -4.1pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 12.7
1.3pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -4.3pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
52 IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 14.9
2.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
53 IN
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.2
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
54
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
55 IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.6pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
56 IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.3pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 14.1
1.7pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
57 IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
11.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.5pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 15.5
3.7pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
58 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.5pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 15.0
3.2pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
59 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.6pp
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
60 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.2pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 15.2
2.7pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
61 IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 19.8%market -7.2pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
62 IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 2
12.1%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
63
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6
11.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.4pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 12.1
0.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
11.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.5pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
2.8pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
65 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
12.1%Fangorn 20.4%market -8.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 13.4
1.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
66
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 13.5
0.9pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
67 IN
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
11.9%Fangorn 20.2%market -8.3pp
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.5pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 15.7
3.2pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
69 IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
11.7%Fangorn 21.7%market -10.0pp
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 15.0
4.1pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 22.5%market -10.0pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
71 IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
11.9%Fangorn 23.0%market -11.1pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 18.1
6.3pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
72 IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
11.3%Fangorn 25.6%market -14.3pp
P 12.4
F 11.3
V 14.7
3.4pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
73 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -14.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 15.0
2.6pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
74 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 29.8%market -17.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 18.2
5.7pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.