Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
291
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
10.8%Valinor 8.7%market +1.8pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 10.8
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02 IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.1pp
P 10.8
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03 IN
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
10.1%Valinor 8.9%market +0.9pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 10.1
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 11.9%market +0.6pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
05 IN
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
11.1%Valinor 10.1%market +0.6pp
P 10.6
F 11.7
V 11.1
1.2pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
06 IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 3
11.5%Valinor 11.1%market -0.0pp
P 14.9
F 11.7
V 11.5
3.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
07 IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 4
12.9%Valinor 13.0%market -0.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 5
10.3%Valinor 10.0%market -0.1pp
P 11.2
F 12.4
V 10.3
2.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 13.7%market -0.2pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
10 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 13.6%market -0.3pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 13.8
1.9pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
11
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
10.8%Valinor 10.7%market -0.4pp
P 9.5
F 11.7
V 10.8
2.2pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
12 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
14.3%Valinor 14.3%market -0.5pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 14.3
2.4pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
13 IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 13.3%market -0.5pp
P 10.4
F 11.3
V 13.2
2.9pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
14 IN
STL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
13.2%Valinor 13.3%market -0.6pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 13.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
15
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1
13.8%Valinor 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 15.3
F 14.1
V 13.8
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
16 IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 3
11.1%Valinor 11.7%market -1.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 11.1
1.3pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
10.9%Valinor 12.1%market -1.2pp
P 10.9
F 9.3
V 10.9
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
18 IN
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 15.3%market -1.3pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 14.5
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
19 IN
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
10.9%Valinor 11.8%market -1.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
20 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
13.5%Valinor 14.3%market -1.4pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 13.5
3.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
21 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
13.6%Valinor 14.5%market -1.5pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.6
1.2pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
22 IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
13.6%Valinor 14.5%market -1.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 13.6
1.2pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
23
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 13.9
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
24 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
9.8%Valinor 11.0%market -1.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 9.8
3.7pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
25 IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 10.6%market -1.8pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 9.1
2.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
26 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 11.8%market -1.9pp
P 10.8
F 12.1
V 9.9
2.2pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
27 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
9.5%Valinor 11.0%market -2.0pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 9.5
2.9pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
28
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 15.0%market -2.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.0pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
29 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 15.7%market -2.5pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
30 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2
14.4%Valinor 16.5%market -2.6pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
31 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 16.0%market -2.7pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
9.4%Valinor 12.2%market -2.8pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
33 IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 7
9.1%Valinor 12.5%market -3.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
34
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
11.0%Valinor 14.0%market -3.5pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 11.0
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
35 IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
14.7%Valinor 25.1%market -11.2pp
P 12.4
F 11.3
V 14.7
3.4pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
36 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
18.2%Valinor 29.3%market -12.0pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 18.2
5.7pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
37 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
15.0%Valinor 26.5%market -12.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 15.0
2.6pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
38 IN
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 7.7%market +5.4pp
P 6.9
F 10.9
V 13.4
6.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 IN
CHC vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
12.1%Valinor 7.7%market +4.1pp
P 7.8
F 11.1
V 12.1
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
11.5%Valinor 7.7%market +3.5pp
P 7.3
F 10.9
V 11.5
4.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 IN
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
10.9%Valinor 7.7%market +2.9pp
P 6.1
F 9.9
V 10.9
4.8pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
CWS vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
9.9%Valinor 7.7%market +1.9pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 9.9
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
13.0%Valinor 12.3%market +0.3pp
P 9.5
F 11.7
V 13.0
3.5pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
44 IN
STL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
13.0%Valinor 12.5%market +0.0pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 13.0
0.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
10.8%Valinor 10.6%market -0.2pp
P 9.5
F 9.3
V 10.8
1.6pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 15.3%market -1.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
47 IN
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
13.9%Valinor 15.2%market -1.8pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 13.9
3.6pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
48
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
11.4%Valinor 13.3%market -1.9pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
49 IN
DET vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
14.9%Valinor 16.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 14.9
2.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
50 IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 15.3%market -2.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 13.7
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
51 IN
BOS vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
14.1%Valinor 15.7%market -2.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 15.6%market -2.6pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
53 IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
15.5%Valinor 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 15.5
3.7pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
54
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
10.3%Valinor 13.0%market -3.1pp
P 10.1
F 10.9
V 10.3
0.7pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
MIA vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
11.2%Valinor 14.1%market -3.4pp
P 11.4
F 11.9
V 11.2
0.6pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
56 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
15.0%Valinor 17.9%market -3.5pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 15.0
3.2pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
57
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
14.0%Valinor 17.2%market -3.9pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
12.7%Valinor 16.1%market -4.0pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 12.7
1.3pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
59 IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 17.4%market -4.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
60 IN
NYM vs MILDustin May · slot 2
15.2%Valinor 18.9%market -4.5pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
61 IN
PHI vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
15.2%Valinor 19.1%market -4.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 15.2
2.7pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
62 IN
AZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
12.2%Valinor 16.4%market -4.7pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.2
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
63 IN
SEA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
14.1%Valinor 18.2%market -4.8pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 14.1
1.7pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
64 IN
BAL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
18.1%Valinor 22.4%market -5.1pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 18.1
6.3pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
65 IN
SF vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
15.2%Valinor 19.7%market -5.2pp
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
66 IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
13.9%Valinor 18.6%market -5.3pp
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
MIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
15.7%Valinor 20.5%market -5.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 15.7
3.2pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
68 IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
13.7%Valinor 19.3%market -6.3pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
12.7%Valinor 18.8%market -6.7pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
2.8pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
70 IN
CIN vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
15.0%Valinor 21.2%market -6.9pp
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 15.0
4.1pp 0.987xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
71 IN
PIT vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 19.9%market -7.2pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 13.4
1.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
72
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6
12.1%Valinor 18.8%market -7.3pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 12.1
0.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
73
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 20.3%market -7.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 13.5
0.9pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74 IN
TEX vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 22.0%market -8.0pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.