Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
312
Lineups
252
HR BOARD 2026-08-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 16.2%Palantir 11.1%market +5.1pp
P 16.2
F 11.7
V 10.2
5.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 13.2%Palantir 9.1%market +4.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 9.1
4.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 15.6%Palantir 11.8%market +3.8pp
P 15.6
F 12.6
V 9.2
6.4pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
04
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 13.8%Palantir 10.0%market +3.8pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 10.4
3.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
05
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 6
 14.3%Palantir 11.0%market +3.4pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 10.3
4.0pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 11.0%Palantir 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 11.0
F 12.6
V 9.2
3.4pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
07
Roman Anthony BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 12.0%market +3.1pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 10.2
4.9pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
08
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 16.6%Palantir 13.9%market +2.7pp
P 16.6
F 14.1
V 11.7
4.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
09
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 1
 10.6%Palantir 8.7%market +1.9pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 9.9
2.0pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 14.1%Palantir 12.4%market +1.7pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 11.3
2.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
11
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 9.5%Palantir 7.9%market +1.6pp
P 9.5
F 11.3
V 9.7
1.8pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
12
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 11.3%Palantir 9.8%market +1.4pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 10.2
2.2pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
13
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 13.0%market +1.4pp
P 14.4
F 12.6
V 10.7
3.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 6
 11.9%Palantir 10.5%market +1.4pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 8.6
3.3pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
15
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 9.8%Palantir 8.7%market +1.1pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 9.8
1.9pp 1.125xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
16
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 13.8%market +0.8pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.5
2.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
17
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 12.4%Palantir 11.7%market +0.7pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 11.5
1.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
18
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 13.1%Palantir 12.5%market +0.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.9pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
19
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 5
 11.6%Palantir 11.1%market +0.5pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
20
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 15.5%Palantir 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 15.5
F 12.6
V 13.2
3.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
21
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 7
 9.8%Palantir 10.1%market -0.3pp
P 9.8
F 11.3
V 7.9
3.4pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 890 avg 3 books
22
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 14.7%Palantir 15.0%market -0.4pp
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
23
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 7
 12.0%Palantir 12.5%market -0.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
24
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 15.0%Palantir 15.5%market -0.5pp
P 15.0
F 14.1
V 12.5
2.5pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
25
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 11.8%Palantir 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 13.3
1.4pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
26
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 12.8%market -0.7pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 11.6
1.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
27
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 9.6%Palantir 10.3%market -0.7pp
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 8.4
3.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
28
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2
 16.5%Palantir 17.2%market -0.7pp
P 16.5
F 14.1
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
29
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 15.4%Palantir 16.3%market -0.8pp
P 15.4
F 12.6
V 11.2
4.2pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
30
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 15.0%Palantir 15.9%market -0.9pp
P 15.0
F 12.4
V 11.6
3.4pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
31
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 14.4%Palantir 15.4%market -1.0pp
P 14.4
F 12.4
V 15.3
2.9pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
32
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 14.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 14.1
2.3pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
33
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 15.0%Palantir 16.4%market -1.4pp
P 15.0
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
34
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 11.1%Palantir 12.5%market -1.4pp
P 11.1
F 11.7
V 10.9
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
35
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 4
 14.1%Palantir 15.6%market -1.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
36
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 11.9%Palantir 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
37
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 4
 11.3%Palantir 13.1%market -1.8pp
P 11.3
F 11.3
V 11.0
0.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
38
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 16.4%market -1.9pp
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 11.8
2.7pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
39
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 16.7%market -2.1pp
P 14.6
F 12.4
V 12.3
2.3pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
40
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 14.8%Palantir 17.0%market -2.1pp
P 14.8
F 12.4
V 11.9
3.0pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
41
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 4
 13.2%Palantir 15.5%market -2.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 12.6
0.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
42
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
 14.5%Palantir 17.0%market -2.5pp
P 14.5
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
43
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 12.2%Palantir 14.9%market -2.8pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.0pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
44
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 18.0%market -2.8pp
P 15.2
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
45
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 15.7%Palantir 18.7%market -3.0pp
P 15.7
F 12.6
V 15.1
3.1pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
46
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 13.1%Palantir 16.3%market -3.2pp
P 13.1
F 11.5
V 13.9
2.4pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
47
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 13.4%Palantir 17.0%market -3.5pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 13.5
0.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
48
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 5
 10.6%Palantir 14.8%market -4.2pp
P 10.6
F 12.1
V 13.8
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
49
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 13.0%Palantir 17.4%market -4.4pp
P 13.0
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.4pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
50
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 7.4%Palantir 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 7.4
F 10.9
V 10.9
3.6pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
51
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 1
 10.1%Palantir 11.0%market -0.9pp
P 10.1
F 9.9
V 11.5
1.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
52
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 5.9%Palantir 8.0%market -2.1pp
P 5.9
F 9.9
V 10.0
4.1pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
53
Spencer Torkelson DET
Lineup pending
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 17.0%market -2.4pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.0pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
54
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 13.8%Palantir 17.1%market -3.3pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
55
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 17.7%market -3.4pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
56
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 17.2%market -3.7pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
57
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 18.9%market -4.8pp
P 14.0
F 12.4
V 16.6
4.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
58
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 17.9%market -4.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.6pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
59
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 18.0%market -4.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
60
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 13.3%Palantir 18.4%market -5.0pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 11.7
1.6pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
61
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 12.4%Palantir 17.5%market -5.1pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 13.5
1.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
62
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 15.1%Palantir 20.4%market -5.3pp
P 15.1
F 12.6
V 14.0
2.6pp 1.125xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
63
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 10.5%Palantir 16.0%market -5.5pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 11.7
1.6pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
64
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 5
 10.0%Palantir 15.8%market -5.8pp
P 10.0
F 11.9
V 13.4
3.4pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
65
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 13.2%Palantir 19.1%market -5.9pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 12.4
1.1pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
66
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 12.9%Palantir 18.9%market -6.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 14.7
2.6pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
67
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 13.2%Palantir 19.2%market -6.0pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 12.5
0.7pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
68
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 12.0%Palantir 19.6%market -7.6pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 11.6
0.8pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
69
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 22.5%market -8.7pp
P 13.8
F 12.1
V 14.0
1.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
70
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2
 14.8%Palantir 23.8%market -9.0pp
P 14.8
F 12.1
V 15.7
3.6pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
71
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 13.3%Palantir 22.5%market -9.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
72
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 4
 9.9%Palantir 19.2%market -9.3pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 13.2
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
73
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 22.7%market -9.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 12.2
1.2pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
74
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 15.2%Palantir 26.3%market -11.2pp
P 15.2
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
75
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 11.9%Palantir 23.3%market -11.3pp
P 11.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
1.0pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
76
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 12.9%Palantir 26.0%market -13.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 16.3
4.1pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
77
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 13.2%Palantir 29.0%market -15.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 15.7
3.2pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2433roster/transaction rows
Lineups252confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.