Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
312
Lineups
252
HR BOARD 2026-08-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 9.7%Valinor 7.9%market +1.6pp
P 9.5
F 11.3
V 9.7
1.8pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
02
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 11.1%market +1.3pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
03
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 9.2%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 11.0
F 12.6
V 9.2
3.4pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
04
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 13.3%Valinor 11.9%market +0.9pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 13.3
1.4pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
05
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 1
 9.9%Valinor 8.7%market +0.9pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 9.9
2.0pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
06
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 9.8%Valinor 8.7%market +0.8pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 9.8
1.9pp 1.125xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 13.5%market +0.1pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 14.1
2.3pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
08
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 15.3%Valinor 14.7%market +0.1pp
P 14.4
F 12.4
V 15.3
2.9pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
09
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 10.4%Valinor 10.1%market -0.1pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 10.4
3.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
10
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 10.2%Valinor 10.0%market -0.1pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 10.2
2.2pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
11
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 9.1%Valinor 9.2%market -0.5pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 9.1
4.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
12
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 11.5%Valinor 11.7%market -0.7pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 11.5
1.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
13
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 12.3%Valinor 12.5%market -0.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.9pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 13.5%Valinor 14.0%market -1.0pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.5
2.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
15
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 5
 13.8%Valinor 14.3%market -1.0pp
P 10.6
F 12.1
V 13.8
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
16
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 4
 14.6%Valinor 15.1%market -1.1pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
17
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 6
 10.3%Valinor 11.0%market -1.1pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 10.3
4.0pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
18
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 13.0%market -1.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
19
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 13.8%Valinor 14.5%market -1.2pp
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
20
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 11.6%Valinor 12.3%market -1.2pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 11.6
1.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
21
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 10.2%Valinor 11.1%market -1.3pp
P 16.2
F 11.7
V 10.2
5.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
22
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 10.9%Valinor 12.0%market -1.6pp
P 11.1
F 11.7
V 10.9
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
23
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 11.3%Valinor 13.0%market -1.7pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 11.3
2.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
24
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 14.6%Valinor 16.0%market -1.9pp
P 15.0
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
25
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 8.4%Valinor 9.9%market -1.9pp
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 8.4
3.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
26
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 14.4%market -2.0pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.0pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
27
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 4
 11.0%Valinor 13.1%market -2.1pp
P 11.3
F 11.3
V 11.0
0.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
28
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 16.4%market -2.1pp
P 14.5
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
29
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 15.2%Valinor 16.8%market -2.2pp
P 13.0
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.4pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
30
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 7
 7.9%Valinor 9.7%market -2.2pp
P 9.8
F 11.3
V 7.9
3.4pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
31
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 15.7%market -2.3pp
P 13.1
F 11.5
V 13.9
2.4pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
32
Roman Anthony BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 10.2%Valinor 12.6%market -2.4pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 10.2
4.9pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
33
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 6
 8.6%Valinor 10.6%market -2.4pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 8.6
3.3pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
34
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.2%Valinor 15.2%market -2.5pp
P 15.5
F 12.6
V 13.2
3.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
35
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2
 14.6%Valinor 16.7%market -2.7pp
P 16.5
F 14.1
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
36
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 10.7%Valinor 13.0%market -2.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.6
V 10.7
3.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
37
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 11.7%Valinor 14.1%market -2.9pp
P 16.6
F 14.1
V 11.7
4.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
38
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 4
 12.6%Valinor 15.0%market -2.9pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 12.6
0.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
39
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 12.5%Valinor 15.0%market -3.0pp
P 15.0
F 14.1
V 12.5
2.5pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
40
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 9.2%Valinor 11.8%market -3.0pp
P 15.6
F 12.6
V 9.2
6.4pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
41
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 7
 9.4%Valinor 12.5%market -3.1pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
42
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 14.8%Valinor 17.5%market -3.4pp
P 15.2
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
43
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 16.4%market -3.5pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 13.5
0.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
44
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 15.1%Valinor 18.2%market -3.7pp
P 15.7
F 12.6
V 15.1
3.1pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
45
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 11.6%Valinor 15.3%market -4.3pp
P 15.0
F 12.4
V 11.6
3.4pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
46
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 12.3%Valinor 16.2%market -4.5pp
P 14.6
F 12.4
V 12.3
2.3pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
47
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 11.8%Valinor 15.8%market -4.6pp
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 11.8
2.7pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
48
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 11.2%Valinor 15.7%market -5.0pp
P 15.4
F 12.6
V 11.2
4.2pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
49
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 11.9%Valinor 16.5%market -5.2pp
P 14.8
F 12.4
V 11.9
3.0pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
50
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 16.3%Valinor 25.5%market -10.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 16.3
4.1pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
51
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 28.4%market -13.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 15.7
3.2pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
52
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 10.9%Valinor 7.7%market +2.9pp
P 7.4
F 10.9
V 10.9
3.6pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
53
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 10.0%Valinor 7.7%market +2.0pp
P 5.9
F 9.9
V 10.0
4.1pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
54
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 1
 11.5%Valinor 10.5%market +0.7pp
P 10.1
F 9.9
V 11.5
1.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
55
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 15.2%market -2.3pp
P 10.0
F 11.9
V 13.4
3.4pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
56
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 2
 16.6%Valinor 18.4%market -2.4pp
P 14.0
F 12.4
V 16.6
4.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
57
Spencer Torkelson DET
Lineup pending
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 5
 13.8%Valinor 16.5%market -3.3pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.0pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
58
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 13.7%Valinor 16.7%market -3.5pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
59
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 17.1%market -4.2pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 13.5
1.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 13.5%Valinor 17.1%market -4.2pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
61
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 11.7%Valinor 15.5%market -4.3pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 11.7
1.6pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
62
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 13.0%Valinor 16.7%market -4.3pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
63
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 14.7%Valinor 18.4%market -4.3pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 14.7
2.6pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
64
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2
 13.4%Valinor 17.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
65
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
 12.3%Valinor 17.4%market -5.7pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.6pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
66
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 4
 13.2%Valinor 18.8%market -6.3pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 13.2
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
67
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 11.7%Valinor 17.7%market -6.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 11.7
1.6pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
68
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 19.9%market -6.7pp
P 15.1
F 12.6
V 14.0
2.6pp 1.125xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
69
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 12.4%Valinor 18.6%market -6.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 12.4
1.1pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
70
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 12.5%Valinor 18.8%market -6.9pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 12.5
0.7pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
71
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 22.0%market -7.9pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
72
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 11.6%Valinor 19.1%market -8.2pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 11.6
0.8pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
73
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 23.3%market -8.4pp
P 14.8
F 12.1
V 15.7
3.6pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
74
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 14.0%Valinor 22.0%market -8.7pp
P 13.8
F 12.1
V 14.0
1.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
75
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 12.2%Valinor 22.2%market -10.8pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 12.2
1.2pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
76
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 12.7%Valinor 22.7%market -10.8pp
P 11.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
1.0pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
77
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 15.2%Valinor 25.8%market -11.5pp
P 15.2
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2433roster/transaction rows
Lineups252confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.