Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
312
Lineups
252
HR BOARD 2026-08-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.9pp
P 11.0
F 12.6
V 9.2
3.4pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 9.1%market +3.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 9.1
4.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 11.3%Fangorn 7.9%market +3.4pp
P 9.5
F 11.3
V 9.7
1.8pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
04
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.2pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 9.9
2.0pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 11.7%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.0pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 9.8
1.9pp 1.125xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
06
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.6pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 10.2
2.2pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
07
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 10.0%market +2.5pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 10.4
3.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
08
Roman Anthony BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 12.0%market +2.1pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 10.2
4.9pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
09
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 11.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.9pp
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 8.4
3.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
10
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 7
 11.3%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.7pp
P 9.8
F 11.3
V 7.9
3.4pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
11
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.6pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 10.3
4.0pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
12
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 6
 11.9%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.4pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 8.6
3.3pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
13
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 11.1%market +1.1pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
14
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 11.8%market +0.8pp
P 15.6
F 12.6
V 9.2
6.4pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
15
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.6pp
P 16.2
F 11.7
V 10.2
5.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
16
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 7
 12.4%Fangorn 11.9%market +0.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
17
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.3pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 11.6
1.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
18
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 11.9%Fangorn 12.2%market -0.3pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 11.5
1.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
19
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.4pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 11.3
2.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
20
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 14.1%Fangorn 14.6%market -0.5pp
P 16.6
F 14.1
V 11.7
4.9pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
21
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 13.3
1.4pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
22
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.9pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
23
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.8pp
P 11.1
F 11.7
V 10.9
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
24
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.0pp
P 14.4
F 12.6
V 10.7
3.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
25
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
26
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.4pp
P 15.0
F 14.1
V 12.5
2.5pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
27
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 4
 11.3%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.7pp
P 11.3
F 11.3
V 11.0
0.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
28
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 14.5%market -1.9pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.5
2.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
29
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 14.1
2.3pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
30
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.5pp
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
31
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.7pp
P 10.6
F 12.1
V 13.8
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
32
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 15.4%market -3.0pp
P 14.4
F 12.4
V 15.3
2.9pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
33
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
34
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 14.9%market -3.1pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.0pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
35
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 12.6
0.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
36
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 16.5
F 14.1
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
37
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 15.5
F 12.6
V 13.2
3.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
38
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.4pp
P 15.0
F 12.4
V 11.6
3.4pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
39
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 15.4
F 12.6
V 11.2
4.2pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
40
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.8pp
P 15.0
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
41
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 16.4%market -4.0pp
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 11.8
2.7pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
42
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 16.7%market -4.2pp
P 14.6
F 12.4
V 12.3
2.3pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
43
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.4pp
P 14.5
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
44
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 13.5
0.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
45
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 14.8
F 12.4
V 11.9
3.0pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
46
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 11.5%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.7pp
P 13.1
F 11.5
V 13.9
2.4pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
47
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 15.2
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
48
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 17.4%market -5.5pp
P 13.0
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.4pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
49
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.1pp
P 15.7
F 12.6
V 15.1
3.1pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
50
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.4
F 10.9
V 10.9
3.6pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 5.9
F 9.9
V 10.0
4.1pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.1pp
P 10.1
F 9.9
V 11.5
1.7pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
53
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.9pp
P 10.0
F 11.9
V 13.4
3.4pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
54
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.9pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 11.7
1.6pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
55
Spencer Torkelson DET
Lineup pending
DET vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.4pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.0pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
56
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 17.1%market -4.5pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
57
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 17.2%market -4.7pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
58
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
59
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 17.9%market -5.4pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.6pp 1.174xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
60
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
61
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.7pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 13.5
1.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
62
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 11.7
1.6pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.4pp
P 14.0
F 12.4
V 16.6
4.2pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
64
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 12.5
0.7pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
65
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.7pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 14.7
2.6pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
66
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.9pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 12.4
1.1pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
67
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.2pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 11.6
0.8pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
68
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 4
 11.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.5pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 13.2
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.9pp
P 15.1
F 12.6
V 14.0
2.6pp 1.125xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
70
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 22.5%market -10.0pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
71
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 22.7%market -10.2pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 12.2
1.2pp 1.055xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
72
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 22.5%market -10.3pp
P 13.8
F 12.1
V 14.0
1.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
73
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.6pp
P 11.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
1.0pp 1.086xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
74
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 23.8%market -11.7pp
P 14.8
F 12.1
V 15.7
3.6pp 1.087xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
75
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 26.0%market -13.8pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 16.3
4.1pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
76
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 26.3%market -14.5pp
P 15.2
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
77
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 29.0%market -16.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 15.7
3.2pp 1.143xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2433roster/transaction rows
Lineups252confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.