Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher Outs

Pitcher Outs · Palantir.

Starter workload probabilities with leash, traffic, and lane-health context.

Rows
3
Date
2026-07-17
Lane
Palantir
PITCHER OUTS 2026-07-17 · saved artifact ROWS 3 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist
Edges are provisional — model still calibrating This market's model lanes don't yet have enough graded results to validate edges. Treat the gaps below as early model signal, not settled edges.
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor missing
Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

0 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Pitcher Outs board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap Outs projIPBFRecent KRecent BB Best line
01
Chris SaleATL
ATL vs TEXneutral
P 47.0
F 47.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Under 17.5
53.0%Under prob · Palantir 40.4%no-vig +3.31% 17.94count5.98leash22.995volume0.2751traffic0.045traffic FanDuel -178 avg 1 books
02
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
MIA vs MILhitter-friendly
P 47.3
F 47.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Under 17.5
52.7%Under prob · Palantir 43.1%no-vig +1.77% 17.71count5.90leash25.95volume0.1853traffic0.07traffic FanDuel -158 avg 1 books
03
Gavin WilliamsCLE
CLE vs PITneutral
P 49.6
F 47.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Under 17.5
50.4%Under prob · Palantir 42.8%no-vig +12.04% 16.70count5.57leash22.911volume0.3047traffic0.074traffic FanDuel -158 avg 1 books