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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-03 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-03
30 matched props 9 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-04 Older: 2026-08-02

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 30
Grouped Pitchers 11
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 9
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-03 | Raw sportsbook rows: 30 | Grouped pitcher entries: 11 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-03/strikeout_edges_2026-08-03.json
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 2.83
Strongest Gap Under +22.83%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -29.82% / Under gap +22.83%
Under +22.83%
DraftKings
4.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap -27.74% / Under gap +21.81%
Under +21.81%
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -26.38% / Under gap +20.49%
Under +20.49%
Model O 31.7% | U 68.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.6
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.02
Strongest Gap Under +15.85%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -22.03% / Under gap +15.85%
Under +15.85%
BetMGM
6.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -20.49% / Under gap +12.87%
Under +12.87%
DraftKings
6.5
O -180 / U +108
Over gap -24.78% / Under gap +12.41%
Under +12.41%
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.0
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.13
Strongest Gap Over +14.37%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +136 / U -174
Over gap +14.37% / Under gap -20.24%
Over +14.37%
DraftKings
3.5
O +135 / U -173
Over gap +14.19% / Under gap -20.11%
Over +14.19%
BetMGM
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +10.23% / Under gap -17.52%
Over +10.23%
Model O 56.7% | U 43.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.6
Shane Bieber headshot

Shane Bieber
TOR vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Over +8.26%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap +8.26% / Under gap -15.72%
Over +8.26%
FanDuel
3.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap +6.67% / Under gap -12.75%
Over +6.67%
DraftKings
3.5
O -174 / U +134
Over gap +3.80% / Under gap -10.04%
Over +3.80%
Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.7
Cristian Javier headshot

Cristian Javier
HOU vs TOR | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.78
Strongest Gap Under +4.19%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -156 / U +121
Over gap -10.38% / Under gap +4.19%
Under +4.19%
FanDuel
3.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -10.07% / Under gap +3.99%
Under +3.99%
BetMGM
4.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap -9.37% / Under gap +1.91%
Under +1.91%
Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.1
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs SF | 1 books
Lean
Adj K 3.43
Strongest Gap Over +2.44%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +2.44% / Under gap -9.43%
Over +2.44%
Model O 64.0% | U 36.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.9
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs SD | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.54
Strongest Gap Over +1.63%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap +1.63% / Under gap -7.51%
Over +1.63%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap +1.63% / Under gap -7.51%
Over +1.63%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +0.82% / Under gap -7.81%
No Play
Model O 46.3% | U 53.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.4
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.84
Strongest Gap No Play +1.12%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +1.12% / Under gap -8.57%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -110 / U -119
Over gap -1.26% / Under gap -5.46%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -1.49% / Under gap -4.61%
No Play
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs TEX | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.49
Strongest Gap No Play +1.05%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +1.05% / Under gap -7.03%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -1.10% / Under gap -4.98%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -1.95% / Under gap -5.67%
No Play
Model O 60.7% | U 39.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs LAD | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.09
Strongest Gap No Play +0.18%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -169 / U +123
Over gap -7.85% / Under gap +0.18%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -2.47% / Under gap -4.98%
No Play
Model O 55.0% | U 45.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.3
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs WSH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.33
Strongest Gap No Play -1.46%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +109 / U -139
Over gap -4.55% / Under gap -1.46%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -5.48% / Under gap -1.63%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -3.43% / Under gap -2.65%
No Play
Model O 43.3% | U 56.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.