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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-04 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-04
44 matched props 24 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-05 Older: 2026-08-03

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 44
Grouped Pitchers 15
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 24
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-04 | Raw sportsbook rows: 44 | Grouped pitcher entries: 15 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-04/strikeout_edges_2026-08-04.json
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.24
Strongest Gap Under +17.16%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -24.09% / Under gap +17.16%
Under +17.16%
FanDuel
7.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -22.59% / Under gap +16.49%
Under +16.49%
DraftKings
7.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -22.37% / Under gap +16.27%
Under +16.27%
Model O 30.5% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.7
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.16
Strongest Gap Under +15.54%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -162 / U +124
Over gap -22.01% / Under gap +15.54%
Under +15.54%
FanDuel
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -19.62% / Under gap +13.63%
Under +13.63%
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -20.18% / Under gap +12.56%
Under +12.56%
Model O 39.8% | U 60.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.4
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Under +11.86%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -19.31% / Under gap +11.86%
Under +11.86%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -14.47% / Under gap +8.37%
Under +8.37%
DraftKings
6.5
O +100 / U -130
Over gap -11.86% / Under gap +5.34%
Under +5.34%
Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.8
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.70
Strongest Gap Under +8.01%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -14.07% / Under gap +8.01%
Under +8.01%
DraftKings
4.5
O -186 / U +128
Over gap -16.14% / Under gap +7.25%
Under +7.25%
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -11.77% / Under gap +4.78%
Under +4.78%
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.1
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.20
Strongest Gap Under +7.92%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -103
Over gap -14.22% / Under gap +7.92%
Under +7.92%
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -13.21% / Under gap +7.20%
Under +7.20%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -13.21% / Under gap +6.28%
Under +6.28%
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.3
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.02
Strongest Gap Under +7.70%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -13.78% / Under gap +7.70%
Under +7.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -12.86% / Under gap +6.85%
Under +6.85%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -10.18% / Under gap +3.07%
Under +3.07%
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.3
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs BOS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.03
Strongest Gap Under +7.28%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap +7.28%
Under +7.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -12.44% / Under gap +6.30%
Under +6.30%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -11.22% / Under gap +3.26%
Under +3.26%
Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.4
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap Over +6.65%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -108 / U -115
Over gap +6.65% / Under gap -12.06%
Over +6.65%
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +5.08% / Under gap -11.18%
Over +5.08%
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +5.08% / Under gap -12.06%
Over +5.08%
Model O 58.6% | U 41.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.9
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs SD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap Over +4.95%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +144 / U -165
Over gap +4.95% / Under gap -8.19%
Over +4.95%
FanDuel
4.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap +3.19% / Under gap -9.17%
Over +3.19%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +0.48% / Under gap -7.47%
No Play
Model O 45.9% | U 54.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.2
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs MIA | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap Over +4.87%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +4.87% / Under gap -10.89%
Over +4.87%
DraftKings
4.5
O -114 / U -111
Over gap +1.10% / Under gap -6.98%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -2.15% / Under gap -5.59%
No Play
Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.3
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs KC | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Under +4.34%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -11.63% / Under gap +4.34%
Under +4.34%
DraftKings
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -7.75% / Under gap +1.83%
Under +1.83%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -6.99% / Under gap +0.85%
No Play
Model O 49.1% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.0
Randy Vásquez headshot

Randy Vásquez
SD vs AZ | 2 books
Lean
Adj K 2.91
Strongest Gap Over +2.68%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +2.68% / Under gap -9.46%
Over +2.68%
DraftKings
2.5
O -111 / U -117
Over gap +1.29% / Under gap -7.82%
No Play
Model O 53.9% | U 46.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 11.2
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs CLE | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Under +1.57%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -9.19% / Under gap +1.57%
Under +1.57%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -5.71% / Under gap -0.31%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -3.32% / Under gap -2.73%
No Play
Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.9
Javier Assad headshot

Javier Assad
CHC vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.69
Strongest Gap No Play -0.13%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -0.13% / Under gap -5.79%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.61% / Under gap -5.41%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -2.33% / Under gap -4.45%
No Play
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.8
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap No Play -0.90%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -127 / U -101
Over gap -5.30% / Under gap -0.90%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -1.73% / Under gap -5.20%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -3.48% / Under gap -2.57%
No Play
Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.