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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-17 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-17
36 matched props 12 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-18 Older: 2026-08-16

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 36
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 12
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-17 | Raw sportsbook rows: 36 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-17/strikeout_edges_2026-08-17.json
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.34
Strongest Gap Under +13.04%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -160 / U +123
Over gap -19.42% / Under gap +13.04%
Under +13.04%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -19.95% / Under gap +12.96%
Under +12.96%
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -18.82% / Under gap +12.83%
Under +12.83%
Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.7
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap Over +12.98%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +12.98% / Under gap -19.12%
Over +12.98%
DraftKings
3.5
O -114 / U -112
Over gap +9.71% / Under gap -15.81%
Over +9.71%
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +9.49% / Under gap -16.47%
Over +9.49%
Model O 63.0% | U 37.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.3
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.21
Strongest Gap Under +12.45%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +120
Over gap -17.90% / Under gap +12.45%
Under +12.45%
FanDuel
6.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -17.58% / Under gap +11.60%
Under +11.60%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -16.23% / Under gap +9.12%
Under +9.12%
Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.0
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap Under +12.45%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -19.74% / Under gap +12.45%
Under +12.45%
DraftKings
5.5
O -130 / U +101
Over gap -15.48% / Under gap +9.21%
Under +9.21%
FanDuel
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -14.52% / Under gap +8.46%
Under +8.46%
Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.5
Blake Snell headshot

Blake Snell
LAD vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.49
Strongest Gap Under +8.29%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -14.16% / Under gap +8.29%
Under +8.29%
DraftKings
6.5
O -143 / U +111
Over gap -13.01% / Under gap +6.77%
Under +6.77%
BetMGM
6.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -14.16% / Under gap +6.54%
Under +6.54%
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 85.6
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.41
Strongest Gap Under +7.48%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +7.48%
Under +7.48%
DraftKings
3.5
O -131 / U +103
Over gap -13.21% / Under gap +7.24%
Under +7.24%
BetMGM
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -12.06% / Under gap +5.28%
Under +5.28%
Model O 43.5% | U 56.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.7
Carmen Mlodzinski headshot

Carmen Mlodzinski
PIT vs DET | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.29
Strongest Gap Over +3.82%
Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
2.5
O -136 / U +108
Over gap +3.82% / Under gap -9.53%
Over +3.82%
FanDuel
2.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +2.10% / Under gap -8.18%
Over +2.10%
BetMGM
2.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -0.09% / Under gap -6.90%
No Play
Model O 61.5% | U 38.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.8
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs MIN | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.40
Strongest Gap Under +3.64%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -9.74% / Under gap +3.64%
Under +3.64%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -9.30% / Under gap +3.20%
Under +3.20%
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -5.47% / Under gap -1.64%
No Play
Model O 43.3% | U 56.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.7
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.39
Strongest Gap Over +3.27%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +3.27% / Under gap -10.89%
Over +3.27%
FanDuel
2.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +2.33% / Under gap -8.32%
Over +2.33%
DraftKings
2.5
O -195 / U +130
Over gap -2.83% / Under gap -6.75%
No Play
Model O 63.3% | U 36.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 15.7
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap No Play +1.32%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +1.32% / Under gap -7.42%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +0.88% / Under gap -7.86%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -1.19% / Under gap -4.87%
No Play
Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.5
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.33
Strongest Gap No Play -0.82%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -0.82% / Under gap -5.16%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -5.70% / Under gap -1.92%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +117 / U -152
Over gap -4.16% / Under gap -2.24%
No Play
Model O 41.9% | U 58.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.2
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs PIT | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.21
Strongest Gap No Play -1.17%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -4.81% / Under gap -1.17%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +115 / U -149
Over gap -5.02% / Under gap -1.33%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -4.78% / Under gap -2.21%
No Play
Model O 41.5% | U 58.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.