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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-18 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-18
105 matched props 61 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-19 Older: 2026-08-17

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 105
Grouped Pitchers 17
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 61
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-18 | Raw sportsbook rows: 105 | Grouped pitcher entries: 17 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-18/strikeout_edges_2026-08-18.json
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs MIL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Under +16.01%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -21.93% / Under gap +16.01%
Under +16.01%
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -21.93% / Under gap +16.01%
Under +16.01%
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -20.99% / Under gap +14.93%
Under +14.93%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap -24.13% / Under gap +14.58%
Under +14.58%
FanDuel
7.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -10.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -15.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -20.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -27.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -29.30% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.1% | U 72.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.1
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs SEA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Under +15.99%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +15.99%
Under +15.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +15.99%
Under +15.99%
DraftKings
6.5
O +128 / U -160
Over gap -17.39% / Under gap +11.99%
Under +11.99%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +105
Over gap -21.41% / Under gap +11.85%
Under +11.85%
FanDuel
8.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -6.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +126 / U --
Over gap -17.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -21.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -25.32% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4
Cristian Javier headshot

Cristian Javier
HOU vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.86
Strongest Gap Under +15.42%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -127 / U +100
Over gap -21.37% / Under gap +15.42%
Under +15.42%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +100
Over gap -24.60% / Under gap +15.42%
Under +15.42%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -18.47% / Under gap +12.37%
Under +12.37%
Model O 34.6% | U 65.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.31
Strongest Gap Under +11.13%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -17.00% / Under gap +11.13%
Under +11.13%
FanDuel
5.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -17.00% / Under gap +11.13%
Under +11.13%
DraftKings
5.5
O -152 / U +118
Over gap -17.32% / Under gap +11.13%
Under +11.13%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +105
Over gap -17.78% / Under gap +8.22%
Under +8.22%
FanDuel
8.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -3.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -8.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap -13.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -18.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -20.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.0% | U 57.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.4
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.98
Strongest Gap Over +9.91%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +9.91% / Under gap -15.99%
Over +9.91%
DraftKings
3.5
O +112 / U -144
Over gap +6.99% / Under gap -13.18%
Over +6.99%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap +2.94% / Under gap -12.49%
Over +2.94%
Model O 54.2% | U 45.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.8
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs ATL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.03
Strongest Gap Over +9.27%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +9.27% / Under gap --
Over +9.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +8.46% / Under gap --
Over +8.46%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +7.34% / Under gap -13.42%
Over +7.34%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +7.34% / Under gap -13.42%
Over +7.34%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap +2.85% / Under gap -8.82%
Over +2.85%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap +2.85% / Under gap -12.40%
Over +2.85%
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -0.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -3.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.9% | U 74.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.2
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
ATL vs MIN | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap Under +9.03%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -14.96% / Under gap +9.03%
Under +9.03%
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -6.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -10.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -16.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -19.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.6
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs BOS | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.44
Strongest Gap Over +7.94%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +7.94% / Under gap --
Over +7.94%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +6.43% / Under gap --
Over +6.43%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +3.78% / Under gap -9.84%
Over +3.78%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +3.78% / Under gap -9.84%
Over +3.78%
DraftKings
3.5
O -140 / U +108
Over gap +3.43% / Under gap -9.84%
Over +3.43%
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U -105
Over gap +3.43% / Under gap -12.98%
Over +3.43%
FanDuel
2.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -1.61% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.7% | U 70.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.9
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.25
Strongest Gap Under +7.31%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -115 / U -110
Over gap -13.18% / Under gap +7.31%
Under +7.31%
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -13.18% / Under gap +7.08%
Under +7.08%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap -10.91% / Under gap +1.36%
No Play
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.7
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SD vs NYM | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 5.27
Strongest Gap Over +6.97%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +6.97% / Under gap --
Over +6.97%
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap +4.52% / Under gap --
Over +4.52%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +1.49% / Under gap -7.63%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -3.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -4.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.2% | U 70.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.7
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs PIT | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.38
Strongest Gap Under +6.35%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap -12.45% / Under gap +6.35%
Under +6.35%
FanDuel
3.5
O -120 / U -104
Over gap -11.64% / Under gap +6.11%
Under +6.11%
FanDuel
3.5
O -120 / U -104
Over gap -11.64% / Under gap +6.11%
Under +6.11%
BetMGM
3.5
O -130 / U -110
Over gap -13.61% / Under gap +4.71%
Under +4.71%
FanDuel
5.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -4.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -9.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -14.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.0
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs STL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.36
Strongest Gap Under +5.53%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U -105
Over gap -15.08% / Under gap +5.53%
Under +5.53%
DraftKings
4.5
O -113 / U -112
Over gap -9.80% / Under gap +3.92%
Under +3.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -9.80% / Under gap +3.70%
Under +3.70%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -9.80% / Under gap +3.70%
Under +3.70%
FanDuel
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -2.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +186 / U --
Over gap -6.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -13.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -15.68% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.2% | U 56.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.7
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
LAD vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.35
Strongest Gap Over +5.40%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +5.40% / Under gap -11.33%
Over +5.40%
DraftKings
3.5
O -123 / U -104
Over gap +5.19% / Under gap -11.33%
Over +5.19%
BetMGM
4.5
O +150 / U -220
Over gap +3.08% / Under gap -11.83%
Over +3.08%
Model O 60.4% | U 39.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.8
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs TOR | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.87
Strongest Gap Over +4.58%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +110 / U -160
Over gap +4.58% / Under gap -13.74%
Over +4.58%
FanDuel
5.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +4.50% / Under gap --
Over +4.50%
FanDuel
4.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +3.51% / Under gap --
Over +3.51%
FanDuel
3.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap -7.15%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap -7.15%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -106 / U -121
Over gap +0.74% / Under gap -6.95%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -5.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.1
Carlos Rodón headshot

Carlos Rodón
NYY vs BAL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Over +4.24%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -148 / U +118
Over gap +4.24% / Under gap -9.79%
Over +4.24%
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -175
Over gap +3.70% / Under gap -12.79%
Over +3.70%
FanDuel
4.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap +2.09% / Under gap -8.17%
Over +2.09%
Model O 63.9% | U 36.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.8
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs AZ | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Under +2.17%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap -8.27% / Under gap +2.17%
Under +2.17%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -7.86% / Under gap +1.93%
Under +1.93%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -7.86% / Under gap +1.93%
Under +1.93%
FanDuel
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -1.54% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -130
Over gap -5.29% / Under gap -3.61%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -5.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -10.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -13.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.2
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs MIA | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 7.11
Strongest Gap No Play +1.04%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +108 / U -136
Over gap -6.75% / Under gap +1.04%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +108 / U -136
Over gap -6.75% / Under gap +1.04%
No Play
DraftKings
7.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -5.18% / Under gap -0.84%
No Play
BetMGM
7.5
O +100 / U -150
Over gap -8.67% / Under gap -1.33%
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -14.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -15.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -16.74% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.