Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-16 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-16

46 matched props 29 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-17 Older: 2026-08-15

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 46

Grouped Pitchers 16

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 29

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-16 | Raw sportsbook rows: 46 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-16/strikeout_edges_2026-08-16.json

Sean Burke

CWS vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.98

Strongest Gap Under +29.61%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -140 / U +110

Over gap -35.56% / Under gap +29.61%

Under +29.61%

FanDuel

5.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -33.37% / Under gap +27.23%

Under +27.23%

BetMGM

5.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -31.78% / Under gap +24.85%

Under +24.85%

Model O 22.8% | U 77.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.9

Eury Pérez

MIA vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.86

Strongest Gap Under +25.10%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -122 / U -105

Over gap -31.27% / Under gap +25.10%

Under +25.10%

FanDuel

6.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -28.93% / Under gap +22.83%

Under +22.83%

BetMGM

6.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -28.70% / Under gap +21.77%

Under +21.77%

Model O 23.7% | U 76.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.5

Noah Cameron

KC vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.49

Strongest Gap Under +24.50%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -30.49% / Under gap +24.50%

Under +24.50%

DraftKings

5.5

O -141 / U +110

Over gap -28.06% / Under gap +21.93%

Under +21.93%

BetMGM

5.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -26.07% / Under gap +18.33%

Under +18.33%

Model O 30.4% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.9

Dylan Cease

TOR vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.97

Strongest Gap Under +21.50%

Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

8.5

O -129 / U +101

Over gap -27.58% / Under gap +21.50%

Under +21.50%

BetMGM

8.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -26.81% / Under gap +20.03%

Under +20.03%

FanDuel

8.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -24.74% / Under gap +18.64%

Under +18.64%

Model O 28.7% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.9

Hunter Dobbins

STL vs CHC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.27

Strongest Gap Under +12.06%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap -19.18% / Under gap +12.06%

Under +12.06%

DraftKings

3.5

O -135 / U +108

Over gap -16.73% / Under gap +11.20%

Under +11.20%

FanDuel

3.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -15.80% / Under gap +9.78%

Under +9.78%

Model O 24.3% | U 75.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.2

Edward Cabrera

CHC vs STL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.04

Strongest Gap Over +10.74%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +130 / U -165

Over gap +10.74% / Under gap -16.48%

Over +10.74%

BetMGM

4.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap +9.78% / Under gap -16.48%

Over +9.78%

FanDuel

3.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap +9.26% / Under gap -15.25%

Over +9.26%

Model O 54.2% | U 45.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.0

Bryan Woo

SEA vs HOU | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap Under +9.81%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -15.74% / Under gap +9.81%

Under +9.81%

DraftKings

5.5

O -122 / U -105

Over gap -15.74% / Under gap +9.57%

Under +9.57%

Model O 39.2% | U 60.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.8

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.15

Strongest Gap Over +7.33%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap +7.33% / Under gap -13.50%

Over +7.33%

DraftKings

4.5

O +105 / U -134

Over gap +7.09% / Under gap -13.13%

Over +7.09%

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap +7.09% / Under gap -14.20%

Over +7.09%

Model O 55.9% | U 44.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.0

Hunter Brown

HOU vs SEA | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 6.52

Strongest Gap Over +7.12%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap +7.12% / Under gap -13.22%

Over +7.12%

DraftKings

5.5

O -125 / U -103

Over gap +4.17% / Under gap -10.47%

Over +4.17%

Model O 59.7% | U 40.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.5

Michael Soroka

AZ vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.20

Strongest Gap Under +7.11%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -14.04% / Under gap +7.11%

Under +7.11%

FanDuel

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -10.47% / Under gap +4.54%

Under +4.54%

DraftKings

4.5

O +106 / U -133

Over gap -8.03% / Under gap +2.41%

Under +2.41%

Model O 40.5% | U 59.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.7

Bryce Elder

ATL vs AZ | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.74

Strongest Gap Over +6.84%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap +6.84% / Under gap -12.92%

Over +6.84%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +6.19% / Under gap -13.81%

Over +6.19%

DraftKings

3.5

O -158 / U +123

Over gap +4.95% / Under gap -11.03%

Over +4.95%

Model O 66.2% | U 33.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.0

Ryan Weathers

NYY vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.58

Strongest Gap Under +6.63%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -13.62% / Under gap +6.63%

Under +6.63%

FanDuel

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -11.75% / Under gap +5.90%

Under +5.90%

DraftKings

4.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -10.70% / Under gap +4.53%

Under +4.53%

Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.5

Nick Lodolo

CIN vs MIA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.43

Strongest Gap Over +4.95%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap +4.95% / Under gap -10.88%

Over +4.95%

BetMGM

4.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap +4.34% / Under gap -11.12%

Over +4.34%

DraftKings

4.5

O -132 / U +101

Over gap +3.00% / Under gap -9.65%

Over +3.00%

Model O 59.9% | U 40.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.9

Jake Irvin

WSH vs NYM | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.01

Strongest Gap Under +4.46%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -11.57% / Under gap +4.46%

Under +4.46%

DraftKings

4.5

O +124 / U -158

Over gap -7.43% / Under gap +1.55%

Under +1.55%

FanDuel

4.5

O +134 / U -172

Over gap -5.53% / Under gap -0.45%

No Play

Model O 37.2% | U 62.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.9

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs TEX | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.99

Strongest Gap No Play -0.03%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -0.03% / Under gap -6.95%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -3.44% / Under gap -2.48%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -132 / U +103

Over gap -3.44% / Under gap -2.72%

No Play

Model O 53.5% | U 46.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.4

Trevor Rogers

BAL vs TB | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.48

Strongest Gap No Play -0.81%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +117 / U -149

Over gap -0.81% / Under gap -5.11%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -1.03% / Under gap -4.95%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -1.24% / Under gap -6.05%

No Play

Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.