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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-19 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-19
47 matched props 13 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-20 Older: 2026-08-18

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 47
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 13
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-19 | Raw sportsbook rows: 47 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-19/strikeout_edges_2026-08-19.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs TEX | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.34
Strongest Gap Under +35.98%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -42.12% / Under gap +35.98%
Under +35.98%
DraftKings
5.5
O -121 / U -106
Over gap -40.73% / Under gap +34.52%
Under +34.52%
BetMGM
5.5
O -125 / U -115
Over gap -41.54% / Under gap +32.49%
Under +32.49%
Model O 14.0% | U 86.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.5
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.77
Strongest Gap Under +29.27%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -35.20% / Under gap +29.27%
Under +29.27%
BetMGM
5.5
O -130 / U -110
Over gap -36.77% / Under gap +27.87%
Under +27.87%
DraftKings
5.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -33.30% / Under gap +27.20%
Under +27.20%
Model O 19.8% | U 80.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.0
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.14
Strongest Gap Under +14.87%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap -20.85% / Under gap +14.87%
Under +14.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +114
Over gap -20.21% / Under gap +13.80%
Under +13.80%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -120
Over gap -15.08% / Under gap +5.98%
Under +5.98%
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.9
Jackson Jobe headshot

Jackson Jobe
DET vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.75
Strongest Gap Under +12.80%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -18.81% / Under gap +12.80%
Under +12.80%
DraftKings
4.5
O +100 / U -127
Over gap -17.35% / Under gap +11.40%
Under +11.40%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -135
Over gap -19.73% / Under gap +9.90%
Under +9.90%
Model O 32.6% | U 67.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.8
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap Under +10.95%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +115 / U -165
Over gap -19.72% / Under gap +10.95%
Under +10.95%
DraftKings
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -16.69% / Under gap +10.80%
Under +10.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -15.95% / Under gap +9.97%
Under +9.97%
Model O 26.8% | U 73.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.0
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.08
Strongest Gap Under +9.67%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -145 / U +100
Over gap -18.85% / Under gap +9.67%
Under +9.67%
DraftKings
6.5
O -120 / U -107
Over gap -14.22% / Under gap +7.98%
Under +7.98%
FanDuel
6.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -10.65% / Under gap +4.72%
Under +4.72%
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.9
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs PHI | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap Over +9.60%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +128 / U -166
Over gap +9.60% / Under gap -15.87%
Over +9.60%
DraftKings
4.5
O +109 / U -139
Over gap +5.61% / Under gap -11.62%
Over +5.61%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap +2.24% / Under gap -11.79%
Over +2.24%
Model O 53.5% | U 46.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.1
Chris Bassitt headshot

Chris Bassitt
BAL vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap Under +6.25%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -130 / U -110
Over gap -15.15% / Under gap +6.25%
Under +6.25%
DraftKings
4.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -11.01% / Under gap +4.93%
Under +4.93%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -9.61% / Under gap +3.68%
Under +3.68%
Model O 41.4% | U 58.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.8
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs BOS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Over +6.19%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +6.19% / Under gap -12.12%
Over +6.19%
DraftKings
3.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +5.58% / Under gap -11.64%
Over +5.58%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U -110
Over gap +3.69% / Under gap -13.52%
Over +3.69%
Model O 61.1% | U 38.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.29
Strongest Gap Over +5.54%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -135
Over gap +5.54% / Under gap -15.37%
Over +5.54%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +2.97% / Under gap -8.90%
Over +2.97%
DraftKings
4.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap +2.17% / Under gap -8.17%
Over +2.17%
Model O 57.9% | U 42.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.9
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.58
Strongest Gap Under +5.16%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -139 / U +109
Over gap -11.17% / Under gap +5.16%
Under +5.16%
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -10.64% / Under gap +4.47%
Under +4.47%
BetMGM
5.5
O -145 / U +100
Over gap -12.19% / Under gap +3.01%
Under +3.01%
Model O 47.0% | U 53.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.2
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs BAL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.98
Strongest Gap Under +2.83%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -145
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +2.83%
Under +2.83%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -8.31% / Under gap +2.33%
Under +2.33%
DraftKings
5.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap -6.85% / Under gap +0.92%
No Play
Model O 38.0% | U 62.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.8
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs LAD | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 3.92
Strongest Gap No Play +0.39%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -147 / U +115
Over gap -6.41% / Under gap +0.39%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -6.25% / Under gap +0.17%
No Play
Model O 53.1% | U 46.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.3
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs DET | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.05
Strongest Gap No Play +0.08%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap +0.08%
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -5.13% / Under gap -0.86%
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -165
Over gap -6.59% / Under gap -2.18%
No Play
Model O 39.9% | U 60.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 77.7
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs NYM | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap No Play -0.98%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -5.00% / Under gap -0.98%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -147 / U +115
Over gap -4.83% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +110
Over gap -6.86% / Under gap -2.30%
No Play
Model O 54.7% | U 45.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.6
Max Scherzer headshot

Max Scherzer
TOR vs TB | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.71
Strongest Gap No Play -1.19%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -4.86% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U -110
Over gap -8.18% / Under gap -1.65%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -3.78% / Under gap -2.32%
No Play
Model O 49.3% | U 50.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.