Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-20 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-20

27 matched props 27 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-21 Older: 2026-08-19

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 27

Grouped Pitchers 9

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 27

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-20 | Raw sportsbook rows: 27 | Grouped pitcher entries: 9 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-20/strikeout_edges_2026-08-20.json

Gavin Williams

CLE vs SF | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.75

Strongest Gap Under +20.79%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -106 / U -121

Over gap -27.00% / Under gap +20.79%

Under +20.79%

FanDuel

7.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -22.27% / Under gap +16.19%

Under +16.19%

BetMGM

7.5

O +110 / U -160

Over gap -23.16% / Under gap +14.00%

Under +14.00%

Model O 24.5% | U 75.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7

Michael McGreevy

STL vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.49

Strongest Gap Under +19.52%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -135 / U -110

Over gap -29.35% / Under gap +19.52%

Under +19.52%

FanDuel

4.5

O -108 / U -118

Over gap -23.82% / Under gap +17.77%

Under +17.77%

DraftKings

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -22.88% / Under gap +16.95%

Under +16.95%

Model O 28.1% | U 71.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.2

Shane Bieber

TOR vs TB | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.75

Strongest Gap Over +11.17%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -123 / U -104

Over gap +11.17% / Under gap -17.31%

Over +11.17%

FanDuel

3.5

O -125 / U -102

Over gap +10.77% / Under gap -16.83%

Over +10.77%

BetMGM

3.5

O -140 / U -105

Over gap +8.00% / Under gap -17.55%

Over +8.00%

Model O 66.3% | U 33.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.51

Strongest Gap Under +8.84%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -14.69% / Under gap +8.84%

Under +8.84%

DraftKings

6.5

O +111 / U -142

Over gap -14.91% / Under gap +8.84%

Under +8.84%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -155

Over gap -16.30% / Under gap +6.74%

Under +6.74%

Model O 32.5% | U 67.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.1

Grant Holmes

ATL vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.84

Strongest Gap Over +6.28%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +123 / U -157

Over gap +6.28% / Under gap -12.21%

Over +6.28%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap +5.25% / Under gap -11.12%

Over +5.25%

BetMGM

4.5

O +100 / U -150

Over gap +1.12% / Under gap -11.12%

No Play

Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.2

Brady Singer

CIN vs STL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.94

Strongest Gap Over +5.52%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap +5.52% / Under gap -11.37%

Over +5.52%

DraftKings

4.5

O +108 / U -137

Over gap +4.61% / Under gap -10.50%

Over +4.61%

BetMGM

4.5

O -110 / U -135

Over gap +0.31% / Under gap -10.14%

No Play

Model O 52.7% | U 47.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.2

George Kirby

SEA vs MIL | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.32

Strongest Gap Over +1.83%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap +1.83% / Under gap -7.85%

Over +1.83%

DraftKings

4.5

O -133 / U +104

Over gap +1.27% / Under gap -7.37%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -165

Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -5.41%

No Play

Model O 58.4% | U 41.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.3

Landen Roupp

SF vs CLE | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.27

Strongest Gap No Play -1.55%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +117 / U -149

Over gap -4.37% / Under gap -1.55%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -4.16% / Under gap -1.71%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -160

Over gap -5.91% / Under gap -3.25%

No Play

Model O 41.7% | U 58.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.6

Kyle Bradish

BAL vs NYY | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.22

Strongest Gap No Play -2.09%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -2.09% / Under gap -3.97%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -144 / U +112

Over gap -3.13% / Under gap -3.06%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -145 / U +100

Over gap -3.29% / Under gap -5.89%

No Play

Model O 55.9% | U 44.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.