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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-21 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-21
124 matched props 23 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-22 Older: 2026-08-20

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 124
Grouped Pitchers 23
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 23
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-21 | Raw sportsbook rows: 124 | Grouped pitcher entries: 23 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-21/strikeout_edges_2026-08-21.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs ATL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 6.29
Strongest Gap Under +31.10%
Best Line 8.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
8.5
O -160 / U +110
Over gap -40.26% / Under gap +31.10%
Under +31.10%
DraftKings
9.5
O +101 / U -128
Over gap -35.84% / Under gap +29.95%
Under +29.95%
FanDuel
9.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -33.71% / Under gap +27.76%
Under +27.76%
FanDuel
9.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -33.71% / Under gap +27.76%
Under +27.76%
FanDuel
5.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -40.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -43.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -47.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -50.04% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.3% | U 78.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.8
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs NYM | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.15
Strongest Gap Under +28.42%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -34.40% / Under gap +28.42%
Under +28.42%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -34.40% / Under gap +28.42%
Under +28.42%
BetMGM
5.5
O -160 / U +110
Over gap -36.26% / Under gap +27.10%
Under +27.10%
DraftKings
6.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -32.24% / Under gap +26.39%
Under +26.39%
FanDuel
8.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -10.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -17.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap -27.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -35.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -39.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.3% | U 74.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.1
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs MIL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 6.39
Strongest Gap Under +16.44%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -140 / U -105
Over gap -25.99% / Under gap +16.44%
Under +16.44%
FanDuel
7.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -20.27% / Under gap +14.17%
Under +14.17%
FanDuel
7.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -20.27% / Under gap +14.17%
Under +14.17%
DraftKings
7.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -19.58% / Under gap +13.53%
Under +13.53%
FanDuel
8.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -14.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -23.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -26.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -26.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.3
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs BOS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.75
Strongest Gap Over +15.80%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +15.80% / Under gap --
Over +15.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap +13.98% / Under gap --
Over +13.98%
DraftKings
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +11.13% / Under gap -17.23%
Over +11.13%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +10.69% / Under gap -16.79%
Over +10.69%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +10.69% / Under gap -16.79%
Over +10.69%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -120
Over gap +9.63% / Under gap -18.73%
Over +9.63%
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap +1.92% / Under gap --
Over +1.92%
FanDuel
2.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -1.29% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.8% | U 64.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.2
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.98
Strongest Gap Under +14.42%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -20.37% / Under gap +14.42%
Under +14.42%
FanDuel
7.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -19.05% / Under gap +13.07%
Under +13.07%
BetMGM
7.5
O +105 / U -155
Over gap -21.53% / Under gap +11.97%
Under +11.97%
Model O 27.3% | U 72.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.4
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.56
Strongest Gap Under +13.93%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -19.94% / Under gap +13.93%
Under +13.93%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -17.02% / Under gap +10.85%
Under +10.85%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -145
Over gap -18.48% / Under gap +9.30%
Under +9.30%
Model O 31.5% | U 68.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.9
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs CWS | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.10
Strongest Gap Under +13.45%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -19.53% / Under gap +13.45%
Under +13.45%
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -17.81% / Under gap +11.64%
Under +11.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -17.81% / Under gap +11.64%
Under +11.64%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -160
Over gap -20.74% / Under gap +11.58%
Under +11.58%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -3.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -13.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -13.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -19.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -22.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.8% | U 60.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.5
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Over +11.87%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +11.87% / Under gap -17.93%
Over +11.87%
DraftKings
3.5
O -145 / U +113
Over gap +8.25% / Under gap -14.38%
Over +8.25%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +110
Over gap +5.89% / Under gap -15.05%
Over +5.89%
Model O 67.4% | U 32.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.5
Brad Lord headshot

Brad Lord
WSH vs MIA | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.49
Strongest Gap Over +11.74%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +11.74% / Under gap --
Over +11.74%
BetMGM
2.5
O -115 / U -125
Over gap +11.53% / Under gap -20.58%
Over +11.53%
FanDuel
4.5
O +460 / U --
Over gap +10.24% / Under gap --
Over +10.24%
DraftKings
2.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +9.46% / Under gap -15.52%
Over +9.46%
FanDuel
2.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +9.46% / Under gap -15.52%
Over +9.46%
FanDuel
2.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +9.46% / Under gap -15.52%
Over +9.46%
Model O 45.1% | U 54.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.9
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.39
Strongest Gap Under +11.20%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -155 / U +122
Over gap -17.03% / Under gap +11.20%
Under +11.20%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -15.93% / Under gap +9.95%
Under +9.95%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -185
Over gap -15.53% / Under gap +6.18%
Under +6.18%
Model O 43.8% | U 56.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.1
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
TB vs BAL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.91
Strongest Gap Over +8.22%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +8.22% / Under gap --
Over +8.22%
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +6.75% / Under gap --
Over +6.75%
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +4.52% / Under gap -10.37%
Over +4.52%
FanDuel
4.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -3.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -4.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -5.57% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.4% | U 73.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.0
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.09
Strongest Gap Under +6.48%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap +6.48%
Under +6.48%
FanDuel
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap +6.48%
Under +6.48%
BetMGM
6.5
O -120 / U -120
Over gap -14.08% / Under gap +4.98%
Under +4.98%
DraftKings
6.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap -10.27% / Under gap +4.17%
Under +4.17%
FanDuel
8.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -3.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -8.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -15.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -19.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -19.52% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.5% | U 59.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.2
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs CLE | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.79
Strongest Gap Over +6.22%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -175 / U +120
Over gap +6.22% / Under gap -15.31%
Over +6.22%
FanDuel
3.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap +6.11% / Under gap -12.29%
Over +6.11%
DraftKings
3.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap -11.69%
Over +5.70%
Model O 69.9% | U 30.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.6
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs STL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 6.67
Strongest Gap Under +6.00%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +109 / U -139
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +6.00%
Under +6.00%
FanDuel
7.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -11.33% / Under gap +5.48%
Under +5.48%
Model O 35.8% | U 64.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.2
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs WSH | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.67
Strongest Gap Over +5.60%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap +5.60% / Under gap --
Over +5.60%
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +3.81% / Under gap --
Over +3.81%
DraftKings
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +1.67% / Under gap -7.75%
Over +1.67%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -148
Over gap +1.67% / Under gap -8.08%
Over +1.67%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -148
Over gap +1.67% / Under gap -8.08%
Over +1.67%
BetMGM
3.5
O -175 / U +120
Over gap +1.55% / Under gap -10.64%
Over +1.55%
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -4.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -6.18% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.2% | U 78.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6
Hayden Wesneski headshot

Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs ATH | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap Under +4.62%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -10.49% / Under gap +4.62%
Under +4.62%
DraftKings
5.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -10.28% / Under gap +4.30%
Under +4.30%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +100
Over gap -8.53% / Under gap -0.65%
No Play
Model O 35.4% | U 64.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.8
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs CIN | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap Under +3.96%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -9.98% / Under gap +3.96%
Under +3.96%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap -11.70% / Under gap +2.15%
Under +2.15%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -6.78% / Under gap +0.80%
No Play
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.5
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs COL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.58
Strongest Gap Under +3.75%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap -9.91% / Under gap +3.75%
Under +3.75%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -6.50% / Under gap +0.40%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -125
Over gap -6.50% / Under gap -2.55%
No Play
Model O 47.0% | U 53.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.3
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.48
Strongest Gap Under +3.55%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -123 / U -103
Over gap -9.45% / Under gap +3.55%
Under +3.55%
FanDuel
6.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -8.84% / Under gap +2.83%
Under +2.83%
BetMGM
6.5
O -135 / U -110
Over gap -11.74% / Under gap +1.91%
Under +1.91%
Model O 45.7% | U 54.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.2
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs TB | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Over +2.63%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +2.63% / Under gap --
Over +2.63%
FanDuel
5.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -0.49% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -4.71% / Under gap -1.36%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -140
Over gap -2.01% / Under gap -7.54%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -115
Over gap -3.84% / Under gap -2.70%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -115
Over gap -3.84% / Under gap -2.70%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -9.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -9.70% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.9% | U 78.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.5
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs SF | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.57
Strongest Gap Over +2.33%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +2.33% / Under gap --
Over +2.33%
DraftKings
5.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap -6.85% / Under gap +0.77%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap -0.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -4.13% / Under gap -1.80%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -4.13% / Under gap -1.80%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -125
Over gap -6.64% / Under gap -2.41%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -9.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -10.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -11.20% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.3% | U 77.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.0
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs SEA | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.95
Strongest Gap No Play +1.08%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -149 / U +117
Over gap -7.00% / Under gap +1.08%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +110
Over gap -8.70% / Under gap -0.46%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -5.14% / Under gap -0.92%
No Play
Model O 52.8% | U 47.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.5
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs HOU | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap No Play -2.38%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -145 / U +100
Over gap -6.80% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -3.18% / Under gap -2.88%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -3.18% / Under gap -2.88%
No Play
Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.