Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-22 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-22

36 matched props 36 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-23 Older: 2026-08-21

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 36

Grouped Pitchers 12

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 36

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-22 | Raw sportsbook rows: 36 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-22/strikeout_edges_2026-08-22.json

Dylan Cease

TOR vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.72

Strongest Gap Under +23.55%

Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

8.5

O -125 / U -102

Over gap -29.61% / Under gap +23.55%

Under +23.55%

DraftKings

8.5

O -126 / U -102

Over gap -29.80% / Under gap +23.55%

Under +23.55%

BetMGM

8.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -27.54% / Under gap +20.56%

Under +20.56%

Model O 25.9% | U 74.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.2

Eury Pérez

MIA vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.72

Strongest Gap Under +21.24%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +103 / U -132

Over gap -27.40% / Under gap +21.24%

Under +21.24%

FanDuel

6.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -26.22% / Under gap +20.16%

Under +20.16%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -26.92% / Under gap +18.96%

Under +18.96%

Model O 21.9% | U 78.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.7

Michael Soroka

AZ vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.78

Strongest Gap Under +20.84%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -161 / U +126

Over gap -26.78% / Under gap +20.84%

Under +20.84%

FanDuel

5.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap -25.09% / Under gap +19.22%

Under +19.22%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -23.88% / Under gap +16.59%

Under +16.59%

Model O 34.9% | U 65.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.0

Ryan Weathers

NYY vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.83

Strongest Gap Under +9.15%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -104 / U -123

Over gap -15.29% / Under gap +9.15%

Under +9.15%

FanDuel

5.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -14.31% / Under gap +8.17%

Under +8.17%

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -10.82% / Under gap +3.53%

Under +3.53%

Model O 35.7% | U 64.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.8

Jake Irvin

WSH vs MIA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.11

Strongest Gap Under +8.67%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -15.60% / Under gap +8.67%

Under +8.67%

DraftKings

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +7.56%

Under +7.56%

FanDuel

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -12.03% / Under gap +6.10%

Under +6.10%

Model O 39.0% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.8

Michael Wacha

KC vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap Over +7.17%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +122 / U -154

Over gap +7.17% / Under gap -12.85%

Over +7.17%

DraftKings

4.5

O +114 / U -150

Over gap +5.49% / Under gap -12.22%

Over +5.49%

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap +3.44% / Under gap -10.55%

Over +3.44%

Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.2

Martín Pérez

ATL vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.35

Strongest Gap Under +5.30%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -116 / U -110

Over gap -11.38% / Under gap +5.30%

Under +5.30%

BetMGM

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -12.23% / Under gap +5.30%

Under +5.30%

FanDuel

3.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -10.29% / Under gap +4.19%

Under +4.19%

Model O 42.3% | U 57.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.9

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs COL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.23

Strongest Gap Over +4.00%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap +4.00% / Under gap -10.10%

Over +4.00%

FanDuel

4.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap +4.00% / Under gap -10.10%

Over +4.00%

BetMGM

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap +2.50% / Under gap -9.43%

Over +2.50%

Model O 57.0% | U 43.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.2

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs HOU | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.50

Strongest Gap Under +3.90%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -113 / U -102

Over gap -7.45% / Under gap +3.90%

Under +3.90%

BetMGM

4.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -9.96% / Under gap +3.18%

Under +3.18%

DraftKings

4.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -8.53% / Under gap +2.48%

Under +2.48%

Model O 45.6% | U 54.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.2

Brandon Young

BAL vs TB | 3 books

Play

Adj K 3.66

Strongest Gap Under +3.59%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -9.65% / Under gap +3.59%

Under +3.59%

DraftKings

3.5

O -141 / U +108

Over gap -10.18% / Under gap +3.59%

Under +3.59%

BetMGM

3.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -7.23% / Under gap +0.45%

No Play

Model O 48.3% | U 51.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.3

David Peterson

CHC vs SEA | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.78

Strongest Gap Over +1.86%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +107 / U -137

Over gap +1.86% / Under gap -7.98%

Over +1.86%

FanDuel

4.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap +0.67% / Under gap -6.69%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap +0.17% / Under gap -7.62%

No Play

Model O 50.2% | U 49.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.5

Hunter Brown

HOU vs ATH | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 6.62

Strongest Gap Over +1.68%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O +118 / U -138

Over gap +1.68% / Under gap -5.53%

Over +1.68%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +1.04% / Under gap -8.33%

No Play

DraftKings

6.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -1.95% / Under gap -4.07%

No Play

Model O 47.5% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.