The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Contreras, Willson in signal, the comp in amber.
BOS · bats R · 560 PA
Ranked comps for Contreras, Willson
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Mayo, Coby BAL · R · 468 PA | 0.73 | xwOBA on contactBarrel rateIsolated power | Fly-ball rate +1.4zSwing length -1.2zWalk rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Canzone, Dominic SEA · L · 548 PA | 0.69 | Hard-hit rateFly-ball rateChase rate | Swing length -1.0zGround-ball rate +1.0zPull rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 650 PA | 0.67 | Sweet-spot ratePull rateBarrel rate | Bat speed -1.3zMax exit velocity -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L · 662 PA | 0.67 | Strikeout rateWhiff ratePull rate | Avg exit velocity +1.4zSweet-spot rate +1.3zHard-hit rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Harper, Bryce PHI · L · 715 PA | 0.66 | In-zone contactSprint speedWhiff rate | Walk rate +1.4zSwing length -1.2zPull rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Goodman, Hunter COL · R · 599 PA | 0.66 | Sprint speedMax exit velocityHard-hit rate | Swing length -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.2zWalk rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Burger, Jake TEX · R · 638 PA | 0.64 | Sprint speedBarrel rateHard-hit rate | Sweet-spot rate -1.6zxwOBA on contact -1.3zIsolated power -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Langeliers, Shea ATH · R · 480 PA | 0.62 | Hard-hit rateChase rateBat speed | Pull rate -1.7zSwing length -1.4zWalk rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Crow-Armstrong, Pete CHC · L · 742 PA | 0.61 | Avg exit velocityBarrel rateChase rate | Sprint speed +1.7zGround-ball rate -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Abrams, CJ WSH · L · 675 PA | 0.60 | Avg exit velocityIsolated powerFly-ball rate | Max exit velocity -1.9zBat speed -1.2zxwOBA on contact -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Caglianone, Jac KC · L · 562 PA | 0.60 | Sweet-spot ratePull rateMax exit velocity | Walk rate -1.8zAvg exit velocity +1.3zHard-hit rate +1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Montgomery, Colson CWS · L · 688 PA | 0.60 | Bat speedPull rateChase rate | Strikeout rate +1.8zFly-ball rate +1.1zGround-ball rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.