Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SEA | 6.13 | 27.6% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 10 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CWS | 5.87 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 5 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs CIN | 5.83 | 23.0% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 6 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs DET | 5.55 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs STL | 5.39 | 25.1% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 5 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs LAA | 5.18 | 27.2% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs PHI | 5.12 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIN | 4.82 | 22.9% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SF | 4.81 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CLE | 4.70 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Elmer Rodríguez
Probable starter
|
NYY vs HOU | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Spencer Miles
Probable starter
|
TOR vs KC | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs BOS | 4.62 | 22.6% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs AZ | 4.61 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIA | 4.54 | 20.9% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CHC | 4.47 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 4 |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable starter
|
ATL vs LAD | 4.39 | 21.9% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs TB | 4.33 | 22.0% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs TOR | 4.18 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 1 |
Matt Waldron
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 4.17 | 20.6% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATH | 4.16 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SD | 4.15 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TEX | 4.07 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs NYY | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs NYM | 3.84 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 3.62 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs PIT | 3.49 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs ATL | 3.43 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs BAL | 3.25 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 6 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.