Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs ATL | 5.89 | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs PHI | 5.66 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs LAA | 5.55 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SD | 5.34 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs LAD | 5.26 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CWS | 5.22 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs HOU | 5.13 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs PIT | 5.10 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATH | 5.02 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SEA | 4.94 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs NYM | 4.76 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs TOR | 4.76 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIN | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CLE | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TEX | 4.48 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CHC | 4.48 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Ethan Pecko
Probable starter
|
HOU vs NYY | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mason Adams
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIL | 4.11 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 4.04 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SF | 3.95 | 19.0% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs TB | 3.91 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs BAL | 3.85 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs CIN | 3.81 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs AZ | 3.70 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIA | 3.69 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs KC | 3.68 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs BOS | 3.51 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs STL | 3.41 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Legumina
Probable starter
|
TB vs DET | 3.37 | 21.9% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.