Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs HOU | 6.23 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs PHI | 6.08 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CIN | 5.89 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 5.56 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs COL | 5.13 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CLE | 5.05 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 4.85 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 4.69 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TB | 4.64 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs PIT | 4.38 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs AZ | 3.88 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs KC | 3.87 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs STL | 3.85 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BAL | 3.79 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAD | 3.75 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Brady Basso
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TOR | 3.74 | 20.9% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 3.58 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 3.56 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CWS | 3.55 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 3.50 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs WSH | 3.49 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs NYY | 3.04 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs ATL | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs SF | 2.90 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATH | 2.03 | 20.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 12.2 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.