Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYY
Score 57.3 | Lineup K 6.39
|
5.09 | 5.63 | +0.54 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs LAA
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 6.01
|
5.29 | 5.58 | +0.29 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 61.8 | Lineup K 5.86
|
4.91 | 5.24 | +0.33 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TEX
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 5.62
|
5.00 | 5.22 | +0.22 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs ATL
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 5.46
|
4.89 | 5.09 | +0.20 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs ATH
Score 45.7 | Lineup K 5.41
|
4.71 | 4.94 | +0.23 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs HOU
Score 47.9 | Lineup K 4.78
|
4.78 | 4.77 | -0.01 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BAL
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 5.22
|
4.40 | 4.63 | +0.23 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs TB
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 4.53
|
4.51 | 4.54 | +0.03 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs DET
Score 37.7 | Lineup K 4.59
|
4.14 | 4.26 | +0.12 | 58.9% | 41.5% | 26.9% | 16.2% | 9.1% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SEA
Score 33.0 | Lineup K 4.85
|
3.91 | 4.22 | +0.31 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Justin Verlander
Probable | projected
|
DET vs AZ
Score 34.7 | Lineup K 4.06
|
4.24 | 4.13 | -0.11 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 3.98
|
4.33 | 4.12 | -0.21 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SD
Score 34.0 | Lineup K 4.35
|
3.78 | 3.93 | +0.15 | 53.3% | 35.8% | 22.0% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIA
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 4.39
|
3.63 | 3.85 | +0.22 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SF
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 4.05
|
3.76 | 3.81 | +0.05 | 51.1% | 33.7% | 20.3% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs MIL
Score 33.3 | Lineup K 4.14
|
3.62 | 3.79 | +0.17 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CWS
Score 37.8 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.69 | 3.78 | +0.09 | 50.6% | 33.2% | 19.9% | 11.0% | 5.7% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs STL
Score 38.3 | Lineup K 4.79
|
3.41 | 3.75 | +0.34 | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
Taijuan Walker
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 21.3 | Lineup K 3.58
|
3.18 | 3.21 | +0.03 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs TOR
Score 20.5 | Lineup K 3.48
|
2.77 | 2.95 | +0.18 | 34.2% | 19.0% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.