Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cole Ragans
Probable | projected
|
KC vs DET
Score 77.5 | Lineup K 6.64
|
6.06 | 6.40 | +0.34 | 83.7% | 71.8% | 58.2% | 44.6% | 32.5% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs TOR
Score 68.6 | Lineup K 5.26
|
6.66 | 6.26 | -0.40 | 82.6% | 70.3% | 56.4% | 42.8% | 30.7% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 63.7 | Lineup K 6.07
|
6.16 | 6.20 | +0.04 | 82.1% | 69.6% | 55.6% | 42.0% | 30.0% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs NYM
Score 65.1 | Lineup K 5.73
|
5.86 | 5.88 | +0.02 | 79.3% | 65.8% | 51.3% | 37.6% | 26.0% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIN
Score 70.3 | Lineup K 6.45
|
5.29 | 5.79 | +0.50 | 78.5% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 36.4% | 24.9% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CHC
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 5.56
|
5.83 | 5.74 | -0.09 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs MIL
Score 55.2 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.85 | 5.73 | -0.12 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CIN
Score 57.2 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.31 | 5.63 | +0.32 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SEA
Score 61.2 | Lineup K 6.11
|
5.28 | 5.62 | +0.34 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs KC
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 5.38
|
5.41 | 5.39 | -0.02 | 74.4% | 59.4% | 44.2% | 30.8% | 20.2% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs SD
Score 64.0 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.12 | 5.32 | +0.20 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs STL
Score 56.6 | Lineup K 5.20
|
5.35 | 5.27 | -0.08 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAA
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.10 | 5.08 | -0.02 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs SF
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.86 | 4.97 | +0.11 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 4.66
|
4.93 | 4.78 | -0.15 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs BAL
Score 46.4 | Lineup K 5.64
|
4.32 | 4.77 | +0.45 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs WSH
Score 46.7 | Lineup K 4.85
|
4.68 | 4.73 | +0.05 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 30.0 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.56 | 4.60 | +0.04 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs AZ
Score 33.0 | Lineup K 4.34
|
4.84 | 4.60 | -0.24 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Colton Gordon
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs COL
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 4.80
|
4.11 | 4.34 | +0.23 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CLE
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 3.64
|
3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 | 45.3% | 28.3% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PIT
Score 24.8 | Lineup K 3.88
|
3.24 | 3.39 | +0.15 | 43.1% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.