Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs MIL
Score 69.3 | Lineup K 6.06
|
6.39 | 6.37 | -0.02 | 83.4% | 71.5% | 57.8% | 44.2% | 32.1% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CHC
Score 62.0 | Lineup K 5.68
|
6.64 | 6.36 | -0.28 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs KC
Score 57.4 | Lineup K 5.29
|
6.17 | 5.90 | -0.27 | 79.5% | 66.1% | 51.5% | 37.9% | 26.3% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs AZ
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.16
|
6.14 | 5.72 | -0.42 | 77.8% | 63.8% | 49.0% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs COL
Score 63.5 | Lineup K 6.28
|
4.70 | 5.31 | +0.61 | 73.5% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 29.7% | 19.4% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 53.9 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.59 | 4.98 | +0.39 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Luis Gil
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAA
Score 52.8 | Lineup K 5.89
|
4.43 | 4.95 | +0.52 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIA
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.97 | 4.93 | -0.04 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PHI
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.42
|
4.37 | 4.75 | +0.38 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs TOR
Score 53.0 | Lineup K 5.06
|
4.43 | 4.66 | +0.23 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs DET
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 5.19
|
4.39 | 4.65 | +0.26 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs BAL
Score 41.2 | Lineup K 5.39
|
4.32 | 4.57 | +0.25 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BOS
Score 33.2 | Lineup K 4.30
|
4.43 | 4.33 | -0.10 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CLE
Score 41.5 | Lineup K 4.52
|
4.29 | 4.30 | +0.01 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CIN
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 4.93
|
3.94 | 4.28 | +0.34 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs STL
Score 39.4 | Lineup K 4.52
|
4.19 | 4.23 | +0.04 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PIT
Score 29.7 | Lineup K 4.58
|
3.96 | 4.11 | +0.15 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs TB
Score 36.2 | Lineup K 4.20
|
4.19 | 4.11 | -0.08 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 45.1 | Lineup K 5.10
|
3.59 | 4.01 | +0.42 | 54.7% | 37.2% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs LAD
Score 22.5 | Lineup K 4.48
|
3.62 | 3.83 | +0.21 | 51.5% | 34.1% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs SD
Score 21.6 | Lineup K 3.87
|
3.88 | 3.79 | -0.09 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 21.8 | Lineup K 4.13
|
3.54 | 3.66 | +0.12 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SEA
Score 13.5 | Lineup K 3.65
|
3.78 | 3.63 | -0.15 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Jose Quintana
Probable | projected
|
COL vs HOU
Score 24.8 | Lineup K 3.95
|
3.14 | 3.35 | +0.21 | 42.3% | 25.7% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs NYY
Score 17.7 | Lineup K 4.49
|
2.90 | 3.16 | +0.26 | 38.5% | 22.4% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.