Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIN
Score 79.2 | Lineup K 7.07
|
7.23 | 7.34 | +0.11 | 89.4% | 80.4% | 69.0% | 56.5% | 44.1% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CHC
Score 60.5 | Lineup K 5.42
|
6.39 | 6.10 | -0.29 | 81.3% | 68.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 28.7% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs WSH
Score 71.7 | Lineup K 5.80
|
5.86 | 5.94 | +0.08 | 79.9% | 66.6% | 52.1% | 38.4% | 26.8% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 62.3 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.56 | 5.74 | +0.18 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 60.4 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.76 | 5.71 | -0.05 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs STL
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.36
|
5.95 | 5.70 | -0.25 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAA
Score 55.9 | Lineup K 5.95
|
5.38 | 5.61 | +0.23 | 76.7% | 62.4% | 47.4% | 33.9% | 22.8% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs NYY
Score 47.9 | Lineup K 5.87
|
5.28 | 5.48 | +0.20 | 75.3% | 60.6% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIA
Score 54.3 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.39 | 5.42 | +0.03 | 74.7% | 59.8% | 44.6% | 31.2% | 20.6% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 51.6 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.89 | 4.95 | +0.06 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 38.0 | Lineup K 4.82
|
4.93 | 4.84 | -0.09 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SEA
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.62 | 4.73 | +0.11 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BOS
Score 47.5 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.35 | 4.65 | +0.30 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs LAD
Score 33.6 | Lineup K 5.17
|
4.47 | 4.65 | +0.18 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs BAL
Score 33.1 | Lineup K 4.65
|
4.13 | 4.25 | +0.12 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CLE
Score 35.2 | Lineup K 3.87
|
4.27 | 4.04 | -0.23 | 55.2% | 37.7% | 23.6% | 13.7% | 7.4% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PIT
Score 33.1 | Lineup K 4.70
|
3.61 | 3.94 | +0.33 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PHI
Score 28.9 | Lineup K 4.51
|
3.50 | 3.79 | +0.29 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.