Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 74.8 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.80 | 6.80 | +0.00 | 86.4% | 75.8% | 63.1% | 49.9% | 37.5% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs TOR
Score 37.0 | Lineup K 5.06
|
6.24 | 5.77 | -0.47 | 78.3% | 64.4% | 49.7% | 36.1% | 24.7% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 6.04
|
5.11 | 5.53 | +0.42 | 75.9% | 61.3% | 46.3% | 32.8% | 21.9% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PHI
Score 50.7 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.31 | 5.30 | -0.01 | 73.4% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs NYY
Score 46.5 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.93 | 5.25 | +0.32 | 72.8% | 57.3% | 42.1% | 28.9% | 18.7% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs HOU
Score 54.5 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.16 | 5.25 | +0.09 | 72.8% | 57.3% | 42.1% | 28.9% | 18.7% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs PIT
Score 37.5 | Lineup K 4.98
|
5.29 | 5.13 | -0.16 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIL
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.33
|
5.45 | 5.00 | -0.45 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs BAL
Score 39.7 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.97 | 4.91 | -0.06 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CWS
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.57 | 4.69 | +0.12 | 65.5% | 48.7% | 33.5% | 21.5% | 12.9% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs MIN
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.24 | 4.48 | +0.24 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CIN
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.16 | 4.44 | +0.28 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SEA
Score 38.2 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.11 | 4.41 | +0.30 | 61.3% | 44.1% | 29.2% | 18.0% | 10.3% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs LAA
Score 46.5 | Lineup K 5.14
|
3.89 | 4.32 | +0.43 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs ATL
Score 30.1 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.39 | 4.31 | -0.08 | 59.7% | 42.4% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 9.5% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs LAD
Score 29.3 | Lineup K 4.24
|
4.45 | 4.30 | -0.15 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs KC
Score 48.6 | Lineup K 5.13
|
3.71 | 4.11 | +0.40 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs STL
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 3.66
|
3.89 | 3.79 | -0.10 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SD
Score 22.2 | Lineup K 3.64
|
3.72 | 3.61 | -0.11 | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs COL
Score 39.0 | Lineup K 4.75
|
3.10 | 3.44 | +0.34 | 44.1% | 27.2% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.