Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CHC
Score 62.7 | Lineup K 5.68
|
6.17 | 6.06 | -0.11 | 80.9% | 68.0% | 53.8% | 40.1% | 28.2% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SF
Score 71.0 | Lineup K 5.70
|
5.66 | 5.83 | +0.17 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PHI
Score 52.8 | Lineup K 5.42
|
5.59 | 5.54 | -0.05 | 76.0% | 61.4% | 46.4% | 32.9% | 22.0% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 65.2 | Lineup K 6.33
|
4.94 | 5.49 | +0.55 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs BAL
Score 56.8 | Lineup K 5.97
|
5.00 | 5.31 | +0.31 | 73.5% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 29.7% | 19.4% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CWS
Score 54.6 | Lineup K 5.06
|
4.64 | 4.80 | +0.16 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SEA
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.20 | 4.72 | +0.52 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Luis Gil
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 38.0 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.33 | 4.59 | +0.26 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs KC
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.39 | 4.53 | +0.14 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs PIT
Score 37.6 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.46 | 4.51 | +0.05 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs LAD
Score 27.9 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.63 | 4.50 | -0.13 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs DET
Score 41.4 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.23 | 4.45 | +0.22 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIA
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.06 | 4.36 | +0.30 | 60.5% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs NYM
Score 29.8 | Lineup K 4.28
|
4.21 | 4.21 | +0.00 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs STL
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 4.31
|
4.11 | 4.17 | +0.06 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs LAA
Score 40.1 | Lineup K 5.32
|
3.73 | 4.14 | +0.41 | 56.9% | 39.5% | 25.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs AZ
Score 23.7 | Lineup K 3.91
|
3.75 | 3.73 | -0.02 | 49.6% | 32.3% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 5.4% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs COL
Score 30.6 | Lineup K 4.06
|
3.55 | 3.67 | +0.12 | 48.5% | 31.2% | 18.4% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs TOR
Score 15.4 | Lineup K 3.73
|
3.78 | 3.66 | -0.12 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIL
Score 27.3 | Lineup K 3.73
|
3.48 | 3.50 | +0.02 | 45.3% | 28.3% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs TEX
Score 19.6 | Lineup K 2.91
|
3.46 | 3.19 | -0.27 | 39.1% | 22.9% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.