Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs COL
Score 79.9 | Lineup K 6.12
|
6.36 | 6.36 | +0.00 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs NYY
Score 56.6 | Lineup K 6.22
|
6.22 | 6.25 | +0.03 | 82.5% | 70.2% | 56.3% | 42.6% | 30.6% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 67.8 | Lineup K 6.06
|
6.12 | 6.12 | +0.00 | 81.5% | 68.7% | 54.6% | 40.9% | 29.0% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs LAD
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.85
|
5.92 | 5.94 | +0.02 | 79.9% | 66.6% | 52.1% | 38.4% | 26.8% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 6.03
|
5.58 | 5.74 | +0.16 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BOS
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.70
|
5.54 | 5.66 | +0.12 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs SF
Score 50.4 | Lineup K 5.35
|
5.55 | 5.48 | -0.07 | 75.3% | 60.6% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs KC
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 5.38
|
4.95 | 5.09 | +0.14 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs ATL
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 5.22
|
5.03 | 5.06 | +0.03 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs NYM
Score 55.8 | Lineup K 5.39
|
4.70 | 4.96 | +0.26 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs PHI
Score 45.1 | Lineup K 5.42
|
4.74 | 4.96 | +0.22 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Ronel Blanco
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs CWS
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.82 | 4.90 | +0.08 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TOR
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.63 | 4.76 | +0.13 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 38.1 | Lineup K 4.58
|
4.25 | 4.32 | +0.07 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIN
Score 39.0 | Lineup K 4.56
|
4.30 | 4.27 | -0.03 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CLE
Score 57.3 | Lineup K 4.11
|
4.28 | 4.20 | -0.08 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 49.9 | Lineup K 4.97
|
3.63 | 3.98 | +0.35 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs HOU
Score 27.5 | Lineup K 4.30
|
3.65 | 3.81 | +0.16 | 51.1% | 33.7% | 20.3% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIL
Score 22.4 | Lineup K 3.89
|
3.67 | 3.63 | -0.04 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SD
Score 26.5 | Lineup K 3.43
|
3.56 | 3.45 | -0.11 | 44.3% | 27.4% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIA
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 4.13
|
3.10 | 3.41 | +0.31 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs AZ
Score 17.4 | Lineup K 3.15
|
3.38 | 3.21 | -0.17 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.