Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BOS
Score 64.4 | Lineup K 6.29
|
6.56 | 6.54 | -0.02 | 84.7% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 46.5% | 34.2% |
Hunter Greene
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 77.0 | Lineup K 6.30
|
5.89 | 6.16 | +0.27 | 81.8% | 69.2% | 55.1% | 41.4% | 29.5% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs CWS
Score 68.8 | Lineup K 5.80
|
6.07 | 6.07 | +0.00 | 81.0% | 68.1% | 53.9% | 40.2% | 28.4% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs CHC
Score 73.4 | Lineup K 6.13
|
5.71 | 5.97 | +0.26 | 80.2% | 66.9% | 52.5% | 38.8% | 27.1% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs LAA
Score 58.2 | Lineup K 6.26
|
5.58 | 5.86 | +0.28 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 50.4 | Lineup K 5.67
|
5.75 | 5.72 | -0.03 | 77.8% | 63.8% | 49.0% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs NYM
Score 65.0 | Lineup K 5.73
|
5.49 | 5.64 | +0.15 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 67.0 | Lineup K 5.82
|
4.71 | 5.17 | +0.46 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TOR
Score 62.1 | Lineup K 5.82
|
4.68 | 5.13 | +0.45 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 54.2 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.97 | 5.11 | +0.14 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs BAL
Score 33.3 | Lineup K 5.20
|
4.86 | 4.91 | +0.05 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TB
Score 57.9 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.59 | 4.81 | +0.22 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SD
Score 57.7 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.66 | 4.77 | +0.11 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs PHI
Score 35.1 | Lineup K 4.76
|
4.87 | 4.77 | -0.10 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs KC
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 4.21
|
5.14 | 4.76 | -0.38 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs DET
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.83
|
4.60 | 4.65 | +0.05 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs HOU
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 4.43
|
4.05 | 4.12 | +0.07 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CLE
Score 44.4 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.85 | 3.90 | +0.05 | 52.7% | 35.3% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIL
Score 35.1 | Lineup K 4.41
|
3.42 | 3.72 | +0.30 | 49.5% | 32.1% | 19.1% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs ATL
Score 18.6 | Lineup K 4.03
|
3.67 | 3.70 | +0.03 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 37.1 | Lineup K 4.97
|
3.27 | 3.62 | +0.35 | 47.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIA
Score 24.7 | Lineup K 3.48
|
3.10 | 3.14 | +0.04 | 38.1% | 22.1% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.