Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 83.5 | Lineup K 7.18
|
6.39 | 6.85 | +0.46 | 86.7% | 76.2% | 63.7% | 50.5% | 38.1% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs DET
Score 70.4 | Lineup K 6.03
|
5.48 | 5.71 | +0.23 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CWS
Score 62.7 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.12 | 5.36 | +0.24 | 74.0% | 58.9% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.9% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.25 | 5.31 | +0.06 | 73.5% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 29.7% | 19.4% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 50.3 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.36 | 4.75 | +0.39 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PIT
Score 49.2 | Lineup K 5.36
|
3.98 | 4.45 | +0.47 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs AZ
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.57
|
4.28 | 4.35 | +0.07 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 33.9 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.22 | 4.33 | +0.11 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs MIL
Score 37.7 | Lineup K 4.16
|
4.40 | 4.27 | -0.13 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CIN
Score 41.5 | Lineup K 4.98
|
3.80 | 4.18 | +0.38 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 23.0 | Lineup K 3.70
|
3.83 | 3.70 | -0.13 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs WSH
Score 50.4 | Lineup K 4.70
|
3.29 | 3.69 | +0.40 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs BAL
Score 26.2 | Lineup K 4.17
|
3.48 | 3.61 | +0.13 | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 16.1 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.10 | 3.36 | +0.26 | 42.5% | 25.8% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.