Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs STL
Score 69.0 | Lineup K 5.83
|
5.98 | 6.02 | +0.04 | 80.6% | 67.5% | 53.2% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs TEX
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.78
|
5.31 | 5.49 | +0.18 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 54.2 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.30 | 5.33 | +0.03 | 73.7% | 58.5% | 43.3% | 30.0% | 19.6% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs LAD
Score 39.3 | Lineup K 4.78
|
5.32 | 5.09 | -0.23 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.70 | 4.84 | +0.14 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Shane Bieber
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs HOU
Score 46.7 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.58 | 4.82 | +0.24 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 39.4 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.46 | 4.54 | +0.08 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs TB
Score 37.6 | Lineup K 4.12
|
4.13 | 4.13 | +0.00 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TOR
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 4.53
|
3.44 | 3.78 | +0.34 | 50.6% | 33.2% | 19.9% | 11.0% | 5.7% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SF
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 4.00
|
3.22 | 3.43 | +0.21 | 43.9% | 27.1% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYY
Score 22.6 | Lineup K 4.37
|
2.58 | 2.83 | +0.25 | 31.7% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.