Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs BAL
Score 80.6 | Lineup K 7.37
|
6.39 | 6.90 | +0.51 | 87.0% | 76.7% | 64.3% | 51.1% | 38.7% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs LAA
Score 80.0 | Lineup K 6.16
|
5.98 | 6.19 | +0.21 | 82.0% | 69.5% | 55.5% | 41.8% | 29.8% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs PHI
Score 70.7 | Lineup K 6.12
|
5.86 | 6.05 | +0.19 | 80.8% | 67.9% | 53.6% | 39.9% | 28.1% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIN
Score 64.3 | Lineup K 5.76
|
5.63 | 5.74 | +0.11 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs AZ
Score 38.4 | Lineup K 4.55
|
5.90 | 5.38 | -0.52 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs SEA
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 5.70
|
5.01 | 5.24 | +0.23 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs BOS
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 5.41
|
5.07 | 5.22 | +0.15 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs COL
Score 57.9 | Lineup K 5.83
|
4.73 | 5.10 | +0.37 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 36.7 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.70 | 4.86 | +0.16 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs NYY
Score 34.2 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.28 | 4.50 | +0.22 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs CIN
Score 57.1 | Lineup K 5.97
|
3.90 | 4.39 | +0.49 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CLE
Score 55.0 | Lineup K 4.93
|
3.98 | 4.33 | +0.35 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SD
Score 34.0 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.26 | 4.24 | -0.02 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs STL
Score 56.9 | Lineup K 5.23
|
3.67 | 4.13 | +0.46 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 34.2 | Lineup K 4.43
|
3.84 | 3.96 | +0.12 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs KC
Score 20.3 | Lineup K 3.50
|
4.05 | 3.73 | -0.32 | 49.6% | 32.3% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 5.4% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs TOR
Score 23.7 | Lineup K 3.69
|
3.45 | 3.46 | +0.01 | 44.5% | 27.6% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs ATH
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 4.31
|
3.10 | 3.40 | +0.30 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs ATL
Score 25.8 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.04 | 3.31 | +0.27 | 41.5% | 25.0% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.