Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CHC
Score 78.7 | Lineup K 6.48
|
6.15 | 6.41 | +0.26 | 83.7% | 71.9% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 32.6% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 66.7 | Lineup K 5.87
|
6.31 | 6.24 | -0.07 | 82.4% | 70.0% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs COL
Score 80.4 | Lineup K 6.79
|
5.54 | 6.12 | +0.58 | 81.5% | 68.7% | 54.6% | 40.9% | 29.0% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SF
Score 59.8 | Lineup K 5.52
|
6.15 | 5.92 | -0.23 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 66.0 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.66 | 5.73 | +0.07 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs NYM
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 5.03
|
5.35 | 5.20 | -0.15 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIA
Score 54.3 | Lineup K 5.43
|
4.82 | 5.05 | +0.23 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs STL
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 4.67
|
5.25 | 5.02 | -0.23 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Cade Povich
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs LAA
Score 44.7 | Lineup K 5.39
|
4.77 | 4.97 | +0.20 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs CLE
Score 64.9 | Lineup K 5.34
|
4.46 | 4.82 | +0.36 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATH
Score 54.8 | Lineup K 5.81
|
4.28 | 4.81 | +0.53 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CIN
Score 67.1 | Lineup K 6.59
|
4.14 | 4.70 | +0.56 | 65.6% | 48.9% | 33.7% | 21.6% | 13.0% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 40.2 | Lineup K 4.85
|
4.39 | 4.52 | +0.13 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TOR
Score 35.4 | Lineup K 4.27
|
4.47 | 4.35 | -0.12 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 34.9 | Lineup K 4.88
|
3.98 | 4.24 | +0.26 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs DET
Score 24.4 | Lineup K 4.19
|
4.28 | 4.16 | -0.12 | 57.2% | 39.8% | 25.4% | 15.0% | 8.3% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs BOS
Score 26.4 | Lineup K 4.33
|
3.98 | 4.03 | +0.05 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs LAD
Score 20.8 | Lineup K 4.16
|
3.57 | 3.69 | +0.12 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYY
Score 23.6 | Lineup K 4.12
|
3.14 | 3.41 | +0.27 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 11.2 | Lineup K 2.82
|
3.10 | 2.91 | -0.19 | 33.4% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.