Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SEA
Score 76.9 | Lineup K 7.40
|
6.40 | 6.90 | +0.50 | 87.0% | 76.7% | 64.3% | 51.1% | 38.7% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs PHI
Score 72.9 | Lineup K 6.27
|
6.52 | 6.55 | +0.03 | 84.7% | 73.3% | 60.1% | 46.6% | 34.3% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PIT
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.78
|
5.60 | 5.68 | +0.08 | 77.4% | 63.3% | 48.4% | 34.8% | 23.6% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs AZ
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 4.95
|
5.56 | 5.34 | -0.22 | 73.8% | 58.6% | 43.5% | 30.1% | 19.7% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs TB
Score 57.6 | Lineup K 5.80
|
4.98 | 5.30 | +0.32 | 73.4% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs BOS
Score 42.0 | Lineup K 5.34
|
5.11 | 5.16 | +0.05 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs ATH
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.57
|
4.69 | 5.01 | +0.32 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIA
Score 56.8 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.27 | 4.66 | +0.39 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIN
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 4.56
|
4.70 | 4.61 | -0.09 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CHC
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.37 | 4.61 | +0.24 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs DET
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 4.40
|
3.90 | 4.08 | +0.18 | 55.9% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 14.1% | 7.7% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CWS
Score 44.4 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.85 | 4.05 | +0.20 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs COL
Score 47.5 | Lineup K 5.40
|
3.44 | 3.85 | +0.41 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs WSH
Score 36.7 | Lineup K 4.24
|
3.44 | 3.68 | +0.24 | 48.7% | 31.4% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.