Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | confirmed
|
LAD vs ATL
Score 71.1 | Lineup K 6.27
|
5.89 | 6.12 | +0.23 | 81.5% | 68.7% | 54.6% | 40.9% | 29.0% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | confirmed
|
CLE vs LAA
Score 62.1 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.55 | 5.74 | +0.19 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | confirmed
|
PIT vs SD
Score 74.0 | Lineup K 6.04
|
5.34 | 5.69 | +0.35 | 77.5% | 63.4% | 48.6% | 35.0% | 23.7% |
Michael King
Probable | confirmed
|
SD vs PIT
Score 74.9 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.10 | 5.60 | +0.50 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | confirmed
|
TEX vs CWS
Score 77.6 | Lineup K 5.83
|
5.22 | 5.55 | +0.33 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
George Kirby
Probable | confirmed
|
SEA vs PHI
Score 57.9 | Lineup K 5.04
|
5.66 | 5.48 | -0.18 | 75.3% | 60.6% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | confirmed
|
PHI vs SEA
Score 56.3 | Lineup K 6.12
|
4.94 | 5.38 | +0.44 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | confirmed
|
MIN vs ATH
Score 64.9 | Lineup K 5.48
|
5.02 | 5.24 | +0.22 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Will Warren
Probable | confirmed
|
NYY vs HOU
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.13 | 5.10 | -0.03 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | confirmed
|
ATL vs LAD
Score 25.5 | Lineup K 4.47
|
5.26 | 4.89 | -0.37 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | confirmed
|
MIL vs NYM
Score 36.7 | Lineup K 4.61
|
4.76 | 4.66 | -0.10 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | confirmed
|
KC vs TOR
Score 40.8 | Lineup K 4.21
|
4.76 | 4.53 | -0.23 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | confirmed
|
AZ vs CHC
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 4.72
|
4.48 | 4.51 | +0.03 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Brady Singer
Probable | confirmed
|
CIN vs SF
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 4.95
|
3.95 | 4.31 | +0.36 | 59.7% | 42.4% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 9.5% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | confirmed
|
SF vs CIN
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 5.16
|
3.81 | 4.22 | +0.41 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | confirmed
|
TOR vs KC
Score 44.8 | Lineup K 4.63
|
3.68 | 4.00 | +0.32 | 54.5% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | confirmed
|
STL vs BAL
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 4.43
|
3.85 | 3.99 | +0.14 | 54.3% | 36.9% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs STL
Score 62.3 | Lineup K 6.49
|
3.41 | 3.86 | +0.45 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 21.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | confirmed
|
DET vs TB
Score 22.3 | Lineup K 3.83
|
3.91 | 3.80 | -0.11 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | confirmed
|
CHC vs AZ
Score 22.9 | Lineup K 3.91
|
3.70 | 3.69 | -0.01 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.