Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SEA
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 6.37
|
6.13 | 6.28 | +0.15 | 82.7% | 70.5% | 56.7% | 43.0% | 31.0% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CIN
Score 65.3 | Lineup K 6.55
|
5.83 | 6.16 | +0.33 | 81.8% | 69.2% | 55.1% | 41.4% | 29.5% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs DET
Score 69.4 | Lineup K 6.10
|
5.55 | 5.83 | +0.28 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs STL
Score 74.3 | Lineup K 6.10
|
5.39 | 5.75 | +0.36 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CWS
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.87 | 5.73 | -0.14 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs PHI
Score 69.6 | Lineup K 6.00
|
5.12 | 5.51 | +0.39 | 75.7% | 61.0% | 46.0% | 32.5% | 21.6% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs LAA
Score 57.6 | Lineup K 5.70
|
5.18 | 5.39 | +0.21 | 74.4% | 59.4% | 44.2% | 30.8% | 20.2% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIN
Score 62.7 | Lineup K 6.21
|
4.82 | 5.36 | +0.54 | 74.0% | 58.9% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.9% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIA
Score 72.3 | Lineup K 6.28
|
4.54 | 5.18 | +0.64 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs SF
Score 59.7 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.81 | 5.10 | +0.29 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs BOS
Score 40.3 | Lineup K 4.90
|
4.62 | 4.68 | +0.06 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CHC
Score 40.1 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.47 | 4.53 | +0.06 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs AZ
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 4.24
|
4.61 | 4.45 | -0.16 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs TEX
Score 30.6 | Lineup K 4.65
|
4.07 | 4.21 | +0.14 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs LAD
Score 18.6 | Lineup K 4.09
|
4.39 | 4.18 | -0.21 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs NYM
Score 29.4 | Lineup K 4.79
|
3.84 | 4.10 | +0.26 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs BAL
Score 23.9 | Lineup K 4.27
|
3.25 | 3.53 | +0.28 | 45.9% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs WSH
Score 29.9 | Lineup K 3.46
|
3.62 | 3.51 | -0.11 | 45.5% | 28.4% | 16.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PIT
Score 17.9 | Lineup K 3.48
|
3.49 | 3.40 | -0.09 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.