Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
AZ 5, KC 3. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
AZ 5, KC 3
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
5 – 3final score
8total runs
47% → 0%KC win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Pitcher 669203 vs Wacha, Michael · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
AZ 53.4%KC 46.6%
4.76 – 4.15mean score
8.91mean total
55%NRFI
10.5%extra innings
5.63 / 5.1starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
AZ (gold) vs KC (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
AZ per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nootbaar, Lars | 4.882 | 1.114 | 0.133 | 1.752 | 0.516 | 1.064 | 0.476 |
| Marte, Ketel | 4.766 | 1.166 | 0.193 | 2.033 | 0.35 | 0.84 | 0.618 |
| Moreno, Gabriel | 4.659 | 1.308 | 0.153 | 2.083 | 0.449 | 0.848 | 0.599 |
| Perdomo, Geraldo | 4.562 | 1.055 | 0.088 | 1.523 | 0.503 | 0.691 | 0.48 |
| Carroll, Corbin | 4.457 | 0.992 | 0.153 | 1.738 | 0.401 | 1.09 | 0.589 |
| Arenado, Nolan | 4.35 | 1.016 | 0.196 | 1.837 | 0.333 | 0.97 | 0.636 |
| Troy, Tommy | 4.236 | 0.991 | 0.115 | 1.57 | 0.373 | 1.111 | 0.467 |
| Tawa, Tim | 4.115 | 0.993 | 0.122 | 1.567 | 0.322 | 1.118 | 0.482 |
| Waldschmidt, Ryan | 3.997 | 1.038 | 0.071 | 1.482 | 0.283 | 1.154 | 0.41 |
Projected batting lines
KC per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen, Carter | 4.632 | 0.995 | 0.175 | 1.778 | 0.472 | 1.458 | 0.475 |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 4.512 | 1.177 | 0.131 | 1.885 | 0.45 | 0.993 | 0.496 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 4.408 | 1.011 | 0.122 | 1.581 | 0.454 | 0.878 | 0.505 |
| Perez, Salvador | 4.297 | 1.039 | 0.154 | 1.719 | 0.213 | 1.013 | 0.576 |
| Massey, Michael | 4.194 | 1.127 | 0.123 | 1.758 | 0.252 | 0.867 | 0.5 |
| Loftin, Nick | 4.094 | 0.978 | 0.088 | 1.453 | 0.371 | 0.875 | 0.4 |
| Collins, Isaac | 3.99 | 0.867 | 0.06 | 1.213 | 0.416 | 1.042 | 0.34 |
| Lugo, Matthew | 3.88 | 0.934 | 0.11 | 1.464 | 0.324 | 1.069 | 0.465 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 3.756 | 0.875 | 0.08 | 1.297 | 0.239 | 0.97 | 0.396 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Nootbaar, Lars vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Marte, Ketel vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Moreno, Gabriel vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Carroll, Corbin vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Jensen, Carter vs Pitcher 669203: K
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Pitcher 669203: BB
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
Perez, Salvador vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Arenado, Nolan vs Wacha, Michael: K
Troy, Tommy vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
Tawa, Tim vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Wacha, Michael: 2B +1 run (1-0)
Nootbaar, Lars vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Massey, Michael vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
Loftin, Nick vs Pitcher 669203: OUT GB
Collins, Isaac vs Pitcher 669203: 1B
Lugo, Matthew vs Pitcher 669203: K
— Top 3 —
Marte, Ketel vs Wacha, Michael: K
Moreno, Gabriel vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Isbel, Kyle vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
Jensen, Carter vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Carroll, Corbin vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Arenado, Nolan vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
Troy, Tommy vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
Perez, Salvador vs Pitcher 669203: 2B
Massey, Michael vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
Loftin, Nick vs Pitcher 669203: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Tawa, Tim vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Nootbaar, Lars vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Marte, Ketel vs Wacha, Michael: 1B +1 run (2-0)
Moreno, Gabriel vs Wacha, Michael: BB
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Wacha, Michael: HR +4 runs (6-0)
Carroll, Corbin vs Way, Beck: K
Arenado, Nolan vs Way, Beck: K
— Bottom 5 —
Collins, Isaac vs Pitcher 669203: 1B
Lugo, Matthew vs Pitcher 669203: 1B
Isbel, Kyle vs Pitcher 669203: OUT GB
Jensen, Carter vs Pitcher 669203: K
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Pitcher 669203: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Troy, Tommy vs Way, Beck: OUT AIR
Tawa, Tim vs Way, Beck: 1B
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Falter, Bailey: 1B
Nootbaar, Lars vs Falter, Bailey: OUT AIR
Marte, Ketel vs Falter, Bailey: K
— Bottom 6 —
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Pitcher 669203: 2B
Perez, Salvador vs Pitcher 669203: K
Massey, Michael vs Pitcher 669203: OUT GB
Loftin, Nick vs Pitcher 669203: 1B +1 run (6-1)
Collins, Isaac vs Pitcher 669203: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Moreno, Gabriel vs Falter, Bailey: OUT AIR
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Falter, Bailey: 1B
Carroll, Corbin vs Falter, Bailey: OUT GB
Arenado, Nolan vs Morgan, Eli: BB
Troy, Tommy vs Morgan, Eli: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Lugo, Matthew vs Martinez, Justin: OUT AIR
Isbel, Kyle vs Martinez, Justin: OUT GB
Jensen, Carter vs Martinez, Justin: K
— Top 8 —
Tawa, Tim vs Morgan, Eli: K
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Morgan, Eli: K
Nootbaar, Lars vs Morgan, Eli: K
— Bottom 8 —
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Martinez, Justin: OUT GB
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Clarke, Taylor: BB
Perez, Salvador vs Clarke, Taylor: K
Massey, Michael vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Marte, Ketel vs Morgan, Eli: OUT AIR
Moreno, Gabriel vs McGee, Easton: OUT AIR
Perdomo, Geraldo vs McGee, Easton: 3B
Carroll, Corbin vs McGee, Easton: 3B +1 run (7-1)
Arenado, Nolan vs McGee, Easton: K
— Bottom 9 —
Loftin, Nick vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT GB
Collins, Isaac vs Clarke, Taylor: K
Lugo, Matthew vs Clarke, Taylor: K