Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-07-21

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-07-21

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-07-22 2026-07-20 →

Lane Health 2026-07-28

Palantir 11634 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.011 14d stable

Fangorn 11634 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Valinor 6039 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TOR | vs Kevin Gausman

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.6% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Kevin Gausman, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

BetMGM +650 17.9% 4.6% Watch Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TOR | vs Kevin Gausman

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.1% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Kevin Gausman, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +575 17.9% 3.1% Watch Zone

BetMGM +570 17.9% 3.0% Watch Zone

DraftKings +570 17.9% 3.0% Watch Zone

Cj Abrams

WSH vs COL | vs Michael Lorenzen

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael Lorenzen, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +590 17.9% 3.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

DraftKings +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

Roman Anthony

BOS vs BAL | vs Kyle Bradish

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 5.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.8% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Kyle Bradish, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +700 17.9% 5.4% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs TB | vs Drew Rasmussen

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 7.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.3% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.2% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Drew Rasmussen, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +960 17.2% 7.8% Watch Zone

BetMGM +945 17.2% 7.6% Watch Zone

FanDuel +940 17.2% 7.6% Watch Zone

Spencer Horwitz

PIT vs NYY | vs Will Warren

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 5.5%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.6% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.2% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Will Warren, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +755 17.2% 5.5% Watch Zone

FanDuel +750 17.2% 5.5% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.