Section III · Betting · 2026-07-27

PHI at MIA

Wheeler, Zack vs Phillips, Tyler · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean PHI or MIA?

Mithrandir leans MIA over PHI.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

51.5% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs PHI 4.5 · MIA 3.8 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.3 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line PHI -1.5 · MIA 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.4% · YRFI 49.6% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 11 Available in 11 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

11 matched rows

Home runs · MIA vs PHI Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.7% F12.2% V12.4%

Model 13.5% Market 10.1% Model-market gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Hits · MIA vs PHI Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 73.0% Market 40.8% Provisional model gap +32.1 pts

Open board

Hits · MIA vs PHI Otto Lopez Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P85.8% F-- V--

Model 85.8% Market 71.4% Provisional model gap +14.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs PHI Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.1% F-- V--

Model 40.1% Market 27.0% Provisional model gap +13.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs PHI Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.9% F-- V--

Model 40.9% Market 28.2% Provisional model gap +12.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs PHI Otto Lopez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.7% F-- V--

Model 47.7% Market 37.0% Provisional model gap +10.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIA vs PHI Heriberto Hernández Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P53.6% F-- V--

Model 53.6% Market 44.4% Provisional model gap +9.2 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · PHI vs MIA Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.1% F-- V--

Model 47.1% Market 40.2% Provisional model gap +6.9 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · PHI vs MIA Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 · Healthy / active roster

P49.5% F-- V42.2%

Model 49.5% Market 42.8% Provisional model gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Hits · MIA vs PHI Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P18.2% F-- V--

Model 59.2% Market 53.5% Provisional model gap +5.7 pts

Open board

Hits · MIA vs PHI Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P23.4% F-- V--

Model 23.4% Market 20.0% Provisional model gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.