Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

PIT at CWS

Chandler, Bubba vs Burke, Sean · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean PIT or CWS?

Mithrandir leans CWS over PIT.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

55.5% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs PIT 4.3 · CWS 4.2 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.5 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line PIT -1.5 · CWS 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.5% · YRFI 49.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 14 Available in 14 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

14 matched rows

Total bases · PIT vs CWS Jake Mangum Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.4% F-- V--

Model 38.4% Market 23.5% Model-market gap +14.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs CWS Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.7% F-- V--

Model 38.7% Market 24.1% Model-market gap +14.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs CWS Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.5% F-- V--

Model 40.5% Market 26.7% Model-market gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs CWS Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.8% F-- V--

Model 42.8% Market 30.3% Model-market gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs CWS Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.3% F-- V--

Model 47.3% Market 37.0% Model-market gap +10.3 pts

Open board

Home runs · PIT vs CWS Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.3% F12.5% V15.0%

Model 20.7% Market 13.5% Model-market gap +7.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · PIT vs CWS Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.8% F13.2% V9.7%

Model 18.1% Market 11.3% Model-market gap +6.8 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · CWS vs PIT Sean Burke Over 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.5% F-- V--

Model 47.5% Market 44.6% Model-market gap +2.9 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · CWS vs PIT Sean Burke Under 6.5 · Healthy / active roster

P84.5% F-- V56.3%

Model 84.5% Market 53.3% Provisional model gap +31.2 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs CWS Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P87.6% F-- V--

Model 87.6% Market 77.8% Provisional model gap +9.8 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs CWS Jake Mangum Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P28.2% F-- V--

Model 70.4% Market 65.5% Provisional model gap +4.9 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs CWS Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P79.9% F-- V--

Model 79.9% Market 75.6% Provisional model gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs CWS Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P77.9% F-- V--

Model 77.9% Market 73.7% Provisional model gap +4.2 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs CWS Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P82.7% F-- V--

Model 82.7% Market 80.8% Provisional model gap +1.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.