Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
52
Matched
180
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-06-11 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
 26.0%Valinor 11.7%market +10.2pp
P 23.9
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.0pp 1.227xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
02
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 6
 15.5%Valinor 10.5%market +9.3pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.2pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
03
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 13.2%market +8.1pp
P 17.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.4pp 1.227xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
04
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 11.9%market +7.9pp
P 16.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.8pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
05
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 9.8%market +7.6pp
P 15.8
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.6pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
06
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 8.7%market +7.4pp
P 16.1
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.4pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 11.7%market +7.3pp
P 18.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 1.137xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
08
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 10.9%market +7.2pp
P 15.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
09
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 12.5%market +7.1pp
P 17.9
F 13.6
V 13.6
4.4pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
10
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 14.8%market +6.8pp
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
11
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs DETKeider Montero · slot 7
 17.9%Valinor 11.9%market +6.3pp
P 18.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
12
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 14.8%market +5.9pp
P 20.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.9pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
13
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
 19.6%Valinor 16.2%market +5.1pp
P 21.6
F 19.6
V 19.6
2.0pp 1.227xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
14
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 15.5%Valinor 10.1%market +4.9pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.1pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
15
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 17.2%Valinor 13.1%market +4.7pp
P 18.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.0pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
16
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +4.7pp
P 21.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.0pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
17
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +4.6pp
P 23.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.1pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
18
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 7.7%market +4.6pp
P 12.8
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.4pp 1.137xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
19
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 26.0%Valinor 17.6%market +4.6pp
P 24.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.9pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
20
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +4.2pp
P 10.9
F 11.1
V 11.1
0.2pp 1.137xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
21
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 14.6%market +4.2pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
22
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +4.1pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
23
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 17.3%market +4.1pp
P 19.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
5.3pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
24
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 14.4%market +4.0pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
25
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 12.5%market +3.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
26
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 15.6%market +3.7pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
27
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 6.6%Valinor 10.5%market +3.4pp
P 15.3
F 6.6
V 6.6
8.7pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
28
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 13.8%market +3.2pp
P 18.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.6pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
29
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 15.7%Valinor 15.4%market +3.1pp
P 19.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
30
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 16.9%market +3.0pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
31
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 26.0%Valinor 16.7%market +2.9pp
P 22.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
32
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +2.5pp
P 18.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.3pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
33
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 15.0%market +2.3pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
34
Joc Pederson TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 14.1%market +2.1pp
P 13.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
35
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +2.0pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
36
Kerry Carpenter DET
IN
DET vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 19.2%market +1.8pp
P 19.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.4pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
37
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 26.0%Valinor 17.8%market +1.5pp
P 22.3
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.7pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
38
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +1.5pp
P 19.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.4pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
39
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 18.1%market +1.4pp
P 19.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
40
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 10.1
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.0pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +1.1pp
P 19.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
42
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
 26.0%Valinor 22.9%market +0.8pp
P 23.8
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.2pp 1.227xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 320 avg 3 books
43
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 17.1%market -0.6pp
P 16.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.2pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
44
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 17.4%market -0.6pp
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
45
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 20.5%market -1.3pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 1.154xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
46
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 19.2%market -1.9pp
P 15.8
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
47
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
 15.5%Valinor 23.0%market -2.3pp
P 19.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.4pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
48
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 22.5%market -2.6pp
P 17.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
49
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 13.4%Valinor 19.2%market -2.7pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
50
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 9.1%Valinor 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 8.7
F 9.1
V 9.1
0.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
51
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 13.4%Valinor 26.3%market -6.4pp
P 19.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
6.2pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
52
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 29.8%market -8.7pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1610roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.