Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
80
Matched
294
Lineups
288
HR BOARD 2026-07-22 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
13.4%Palantir 9.8%market +3.5pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.5
1.1pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
02
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
14.5%Palantir 11.1%market +3.4pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 11.1
3.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
03 IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 7
11.9%Palantir 8.5%market +3.4pp
P 11.9
F 11.4
V 9.0
2.9pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
04 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
11.8%Palantir 8.7%market +3.1pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 10.6
1.6pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
15.8%Palantir 12.7%market +3.0pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
06 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
14.1%Palantir 11.2%market +3.0pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.6
3.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
07 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
11.5%Palantir 8.7%market +2.8pp
P 11.5
F 11.4
V 11.2
0.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
08 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
17.4%Palantir 14.7%market +2.7pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 13.8
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
09 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
17.6%Palantir 15.0%market +2.5pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 14.8
2.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
10 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
13.0%Palantir 10.6%market +2.4pp
P 13.0
F 7.4
V 10.5
5.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
11 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
12.9%Palantir 10.5%market +2.4pp
P 12.9
F 11.6
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
14.8%Palantir 12.5%market +2.3pp
P 14.8
F 11.6
V 14.2
3.2pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
13 IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
13.1%Palantir 10.9%market +2.2pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 11.8
1.3pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
14 IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
18.9%Palantir 16.9%market +2.0pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 16.9
3.3pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
15 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
15.6%Palantir 13.7%market +1.8pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
16 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
18.0%Palantir 16.2%market +1.8pp
P 18.0
F 15.5
V 14.8
3.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
17 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 7
13.7%Palantir 11.9%market +1.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
18 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
15.6%Palantir 13.8%market +1.7pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
19 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 6
14.9%Palantir 13.5%market +1.4pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 11.7
3.2pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
20
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
14.0%Palantir 12.8%market +1.2pp
P 14.0
F 9.3
V 11.8
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
21 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
16.4%Palantir 15.4%market +1.0pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
16.0%Palantir 15.0%market +1.0pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
23 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 5
14.5%Palantir 13.5%market +1.0pp
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 14.8
2.6pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
24 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
17.9%Palantir 17.0%market +0.8pp
P 17.9
F 17.0
V 14.0
3.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
25 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
13.1%Palantir 12.3%market +0.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
26 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
15.3%Palantir 14.6%market +0.8pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 13.5
3.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
27
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
16.1%Palantir 15.5%market +0.6pp
P 16.1
F 17.0
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
28 IN Triple
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
13.9%Palantir 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 12.7
1.7pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
29
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
15.0%Palantir 15.5%market -0.5pp
P 15.0
F 13.6
V 12.6
2.4pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4
14.8%Palantir 15.5%market -0.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 12.8
2.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
31 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
15.5%Palantir 17.0%market -1.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 15.0
0.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32 IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
17.5%Palantir 19.2%market -1.7pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 18.2
2.7pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
33 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
17.0%Palantir 18.9%market -1.8pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
34 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
16.8%Palantir 19.1%market -2.2pp
P 16.8
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
35 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
17.2%Palantir 19.6%market -2.4pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 14.3
2.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
36 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
16.9%Palantir 14.0%market +2.9pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 13.7
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
37 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
14.9%Palantir 13.1%market +1.8pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 12.0
2.9pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
38 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6
10.1%Palantir 8.7%market +1.4pp
P 10.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
10.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
39 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1
11.8%Palantir 10.5%market +1.3pp
P 11.8
F 3.4
V 12.9
9.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
40 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
8.7%Palantir 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 8.7
F 7.4
V 8.2
1.3pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
15.6%Palantir 14.9%market +0.7pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
42 IN
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
8.4%Palantir 7.7%market +0.7pp
P 8.4
F 5.2
V 12.9
7.7pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
13.6%Palantir 13.1%market +0.5pp
P 13.6
F 12.2
V 11.3
2.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
44 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
8.1%Palantir 7.7%market +0.4pp
P 8.1
F 8.6
V 11.9
3.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
7.9%Palantir 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 7.9
F 7.4
V 11.8
4.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
16.2%Palantir 17.1%market -0.9pp
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
47 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
15.3%Palantir 17.0%market -1.7pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 14.5
0.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
48 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
16.1%Palantir 18.0%market -1.9pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
15.7%Palantir 17.7%market -2.0pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 15.9
0.3pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
50 IN Triple
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
15.9%Palantir 18.0%market -2.1pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.4pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51 IN Triple
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
16.3%Palantir 18.5%market -2.2pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
52 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
13.0%Palantir 15.3%market -2.2pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
53 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
15.3%Palantir 17.5%market -2.2pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
54 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 3
13.3%Palantir 16.0%market -2.7pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 13.6
1.6pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
55 IN Triple
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
13.3%Palantir 16.0%market -2.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 13.8
1.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
56 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
10.1%Palantir 13.0%market -2.9pp
P 10.1
F 9.3
V 15.2
5.9pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
57 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
15.8%Palantir 18.7%market -2.9pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.1pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
58 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
14.7%Palantir 17.7%market -3.0pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 13.3
2.5pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
12.9%Palantir 16.0%market -3.1pp
P 12.9
F 13.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
60 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
15.0%Palantir 18.2%market -3.2pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
61 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
14.9%Palantir 18.4%market -3.4pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
62 IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
15.8%Palantir 19.2%market -3.4pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.5pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
63 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 4
13.1%Palantir 17.0%market -3.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.1pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
64 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
16.5%Palantir 20.4%market -3.9pp
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
65 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5
11.7%Palantir 15.8%market -4.1pp
P 11.7
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
66 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
13.8%Palantir 18.0%market -4.2pp
P 13.8
F 12.2
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
12.6%Palantir 17.2%market -4.7pp
P 12.6
F 11.4
V 13.4
2.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
68
Max Muncy LAD
IN Triple
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
14.2%Palantir 19.2%market -5.0pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 11.9
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
14.4%Palantir 19.6%market -5.2pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 12.6
2.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
70 IN Triple
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 2
16.3%Palantir 21.7%market -5.5pp
P 16.3
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.5pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
71 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
15.0%Palantir 20.8%market -5.8pp
P 15.0
F 12.2
V 13.6
2.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
72 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
14.6%Palantir 20.8%market -6.2pp
P 14.6
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
14.5%Palantir 20.8%market -6.4pp
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
74 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
13.7%Palantir 20.2%market -6.5pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending Triple
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
14.6%Palantir 21.1%market -6.5pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
15.2%Palantir 21.7%market -6.5pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
77 IN
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
14.2%Palantir 22.0%market -7.7pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 12.6
2.0pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
78 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 3
15.9%Palantir 26.0%market -10.1pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
79 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
16.1%Palantir 26.3%market -10.2pp
P 16.1
F 11.4
V 15.4
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
80 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
16.7%Palantir 29.8%market -13.2pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 17.8
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2106roster/transaction rows
Lineups288confirmed starters
Triple8cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.