Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
80
Matched
294
Lineups
288
HR BOARD 2026-07-22 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
12.5%Valinor 9.8%market +2.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.5
1.1pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
02 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
11.2%Valinor 8.7%market +2.2pp
P 11.5
F 11.4
V 11.2
0.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
10.6%Valinor 8.7%market +1.6pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 10.6
1.6pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 12.5%market +1.2pp
P 14.8
F 11.6
V 14.2
3.2pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
05 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 12.3%market +1.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
06 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 14.8
2.6pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
07
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
14.1%Valinor 12.7%market +0.8pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08 IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 10.9%market +0.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 11.8
1.3pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
09 IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 7
9.0%Valinor 8.5%market +0.2pp
P 11.9
F 11.4
V 9.0
2.9pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
10 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 13.8%market +0.1pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
11 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
11.6%Valinor 11.2%market -0.1pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.6
3.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
12 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
14.1%Valinor 14.4%market -0.3pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
13
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
11.1%Valinor 11.1%market -0.5pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 11.1
3.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
14 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
10.5%Valinor 10.7%market -0.6pp
P 13.0
F 7.4
V 10.5
5.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 800 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
15.1%Valinor 15.3%market -0.8pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
16 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
10.0%Valinor 10.6%market -1.0pp
P 12.9
F 11.6
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
17 IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
16.9%Valinor 17.2%market -1.0pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 16.9
3.3pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
18
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
15.2%Valinor 15.7%market -1.0pp
P 16.1
F 17.0
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
19 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
14.8%Valinor 15.3%market -1.0pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 14.8
2.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
20 IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
18.2%Valinor 18.6%market -1.0pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 18.2
2.7pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
21 IN Triple
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
12.7%Valinor 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 12.7
1.7pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
22 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
13.8%Valinor 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 13.8
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
23
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 13.0%market -1.6pp
P 14.0
F 9.3
V 11.8
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
24 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 14.8%market -1.8pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 13.5
3.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
25 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
15.0%Valinor 16.4%market -1.9pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 15.0
0.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
26 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 15.7%market -2.1pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
27 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 7
10.2%Valinor 12.5%market -2.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
28 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 16.5%market -2.3pp
P 18.0
F 15.5
V 14.8
3.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
29 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 6
11.7%Valinor 13.6%market -2.4pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 11.7
3.2pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
30
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4
12.8%Valinor 15.0%market -2.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 12.8
2.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
31
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
12.6%Valinor 15.0%market -2.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.6
V 12.6
2.4pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
32 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
14.0%Valinor 17.4%market -4.1pp
P 17.9
F 17.0
V 14.0
3.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
33 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 14.3
2.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
34 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
15.4%Valinor 25.8%market -11.3pp
P 16.1
F 11.4
V 15.4
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
35 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
17.8%Valinor 29.3%market -12.5pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 17.8
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
36 IN
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
12.9%Valinor 7.7%market +4.9pp
P 8.4
F 5.2
V 12.9
7.7pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
11.9%Valinor 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 8.1
F 8.6
V 11.9
3.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
11.8%Valinor 7.7%market +3.8pp
P 7.9
F 7.4
V 11.8
4.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
15.2%Valinor 12.5%market +2.2pp
P 10.1
F 9.3
V 15.2
5.9pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
40 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1
12.9%Valinor 10.5%market +2.1pp
P 11.8
F 3.4
V 12.9
9.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
41 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 8.7%market +0.8pp
P 10.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
10.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
42 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
8.2%Valinor 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 8.7
F 7.4
V 8.2
1.3pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
13.7%Valinor 14.2%market -1.0pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 13.7
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
44 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
14.1%Valinor 15.1%market -1.5pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
45 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
12.0%Valinor 13.2%market -1.7pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 12.0
2.9pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
46 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
16.4%Valinor 17.5%market -1.8pp
P 13.8
F 12.2
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
47 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
15.9%Valinor 17.1%market -1.8pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 15.9
0.3pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
48 IN Triple
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 13.8
1.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
49 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
13.0%Valinor 14.8%market -2.3pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
50 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
11.3%Valinor 13.1%market -2.3pp
P 13.6
F 12.2
V 11.3
2.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
51 IN Triple
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
15.7%Valinor 17.4%market -2.4pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.4pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
52 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5
13.3%Valinor 15.2%market -2.5pp
P 11.7
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
53 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 3
13.6%Valinor 15.6%market -2.5pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 13.6
1.6pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
54 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 4
14.3%Valinor 16.4%market -2.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.1pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
55 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 16.5%market -2.6pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 14.5
0.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
56 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 17.5%market -3.2pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 15.5%market -3.2pp
P 12.9
F 13.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
58
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 16.7%market -3.6pp
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
59 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
14.7%Valinor 17.7%market -3.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
60 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
15.3%Valinor 18.6%market -3.9pp
P 16.8
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
61 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
14.5%Valinor 17.9%market -4.0pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 16.8%market -4.0pp
P 12.6
F 11.4
V 13.4
2.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
63 IN Triple
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 18.1%market -4.1pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
64 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 18.4%market -4.3pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
65 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 17.1%market -4.4pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 13.3
2.5pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
66 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
12.9%Valinor 17.1%market -4.8pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
67 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
13.7%Valinor 18.2%market -5.2pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.1pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
68 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
15.3%Valinor 20.3%market -5.8pp
P 14.6
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
69 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
14.3%Valinor 19.7%market -6.2pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
70 IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 18.8%market -6.2pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.5pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
15.8%Valinor 21.2%market -6.2pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
72 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
14.5%Valinor 20.3%market -6.6pp
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
73 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 19.9%market -6.9pp
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
74 IN Triple
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 21.2%market -7.2pp
P 16.3
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.5pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
75
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
12.6%Valinor 19.1%market -7.2pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 12.6
2.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
76 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
13.6%Valinor 20.3%market -7.5pp
P 15.0
F 12.2
V 13.6
2.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
77
Max Muncy LAD
IN Triple
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
11.9%Valinor 18.8%market -7.5pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 11.9
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending Triple
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 20.5%market -7.5pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
79 IN
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
12.6%Valinor 21.5%market -9.6pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 12.6
2.0pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
80 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 3
14.6%Valinor 25.5%market -11.7pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2106roster/transaction rows
Lineups288confirmed starters
Triple8cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.