Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
80
Matched
294
Lineups
288
HR BOARD 2026-07-22 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 11.1%market +3.9pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 11.1
3.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
02 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
14.9%Fangorn 11.2%market +3.7pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.6
3.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
12.2%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 10.6
1.6pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 7
11.4%Fangorn 8.5%market +2.9pp
P 11.9
F 11.4
V 9.0
2.9pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
05 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
11.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.7pp
P 11.5
F 11.4
V 11.2
0.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
06 IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
12.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.5
1.1pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
07
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 12.7%market +2.2pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 7
13.6%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
09
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
17.0%Fangorn 15.5%market +1.5pp
P 16.1
F 17.0
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
10 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 6
14.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.5pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 11.7
3.2pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
11 IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
12.2%Fangorn 10.9%market +1.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 11.8
1.3pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
12 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 13.7%market +1.2pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
13 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
11.6%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.1pp
P 12.9
F 11.6
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
14 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 13.8%market +1.1pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
15 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
16 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 14.7%market +0.8pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 13.8
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
17 IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 14.8
2.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -0.8pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
19 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
17.0%Fangorn 17.9%market -0.9pp
P 17.9
F 17.0
V 14.0
3.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
20 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.2pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
21 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 18.0
F 15.5
V 14.8
3.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
11.6%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.5pp
P 14.8
F 11.6
V 14.2
3.2pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
23 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 14.8
2.6pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
24 IN Triple
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 12.7
1.7pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
25
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4
13.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.9pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 12.8
2.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
13.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.6
V 12.6
2.4pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
27 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 15.0
0.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
28 IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 16.9
3.3pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
29 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.3pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
30 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
7.4%Fangorn 11.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.0
F 7.4
V 10.5
5.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
31 IN
NYY vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 19.2%market -3.7pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 18.2
2.7pp 1.254xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
32 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
11.4%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.9pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 13.5
3.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
33 IN
SD vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.1pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 14.3
2.9pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
34
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
9.3%Fangorn 13.4%market -4.1pp
P 14.0
F 9.3
V 11.8
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
35 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 16.8
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
36 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 13.1%market +1.8pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 12.0
2.9pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
37 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 14.0%market +1.5pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 13.7
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
38 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
8.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 8.1
F 8.6
V 11.9
3.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 14.9%market +0.6pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
40 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 7.9
F 7.4
V 11.8
4.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 8.7
F 7.4
V 8.2
1.3pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 16.0%market -1.1pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 13.6
1.6pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
43 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
12.2%Fangorn 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 13.6
F 12.2
V 11.3
2.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
44
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
45 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 14.5
0.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
46 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 15.9
0.3pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.4pp
P 12.9
F 13.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
48 IN Triple
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 18.0%market -2.5pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.4pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49 IN
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
5.2%Fangorn 8.0%market -2.8pp
P 8.4
F 5.2
V 12.9
7.7pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
50 IN Triple
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 18.5%market -3.0pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
51 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.1pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
52 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
14.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
53 IN
CHC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.1pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
54 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
9.3%Fangorn 13.0%market -3.7pp
P 10.1
F 9.3
V 15.2
5.9pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
55 IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 19.2%market -3.7pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.5pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
56 IN Triple
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 13.8
1.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
57 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5
11.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.2pp
P 11.7
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
58 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.2pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
59
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.7pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 12.6
2.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
60 IN
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.1pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
61 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 18.2%market -4.8pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
62 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.9pp
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
63 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.0pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
64 IN
DET vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 20.2%market -5.3pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
65 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.5pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 13.3
2.5pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending Triple
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 21.1%market -5.5pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
67 IN
KC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.8pp
P 13.8
F 12.2
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
LAA vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
11.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -5.8pp
P 12.6
F 11.4
V 13.4
2.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
69 IN Triple
ATL vs SDMichael King · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.8pp
P 16.3
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.5pp 1.109xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70
Max Muncy LAD
IN Triple
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
12.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.0pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 11.9
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
71 IN
HOU vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
13.6%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.2pp
P 14.6
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
72 IN
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1
3.4%Fangorn 11.0%market -7.5pp
P 11.8
F 3.4
V 12.9
9.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
CIN vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.4pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
74 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
12.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.6pp
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
75 IN
SF vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.6pp
P 15.0
F 12.2
V 13.6
2.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
76 IN
ATH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6
0.0%Fangorn 9.2%market -9.2pp
P 10.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
10.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
77 IN
PIT vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 12.6
2.0pp 1.061xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
78 IN
PHI vs LADEric Lauer · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 26.0%market -11.1pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
79 IN
LAD vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 29.8%market -14.3pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 17.8
2.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
80 IN
SEA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
11.4%Fangorn 26.3%market -14.9pp
P 16.1
F 11.4
V 15.4
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2106roster/transaction rows
Lineups288confirmed starters
Triple8cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.