Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
88
Matched
315
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-25 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
17.7%Palantir 11.0%market +6.7pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 10.2
7.5pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
02 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
14.4%Palantir 9.1%market +5.3pp
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 9.0
6.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03 IN
MIA vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
14.8%Palantir 10.1%market +4.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 13.7
1.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
04 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 7
13.9%Palantir 9.6%market +4.3pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 10.2
3.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
05 IN
STL vs CINHunter Greene · slot 2
16.6%Palantir 12.5%market +4.1pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 16.6
1.1pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
06 IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
14.1%Palantir 10.0%market +4.1pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 10.1
4.8pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
15.2%Palantir 11.2%market +4.0pp
P 15.2
F 15.5
V 11.4
4.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
08 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
18.2%Palantir 14.4%market +3.9pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 13.5
4.7pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
09 IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
15.3%Palantir 11.8%market +3.5pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 10.6
4.7pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
10 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
16.2%Palantir 12.7%market +3.4pp
P 16.2
F 22.3
V 12.4
9.8pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
11 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
17.0%Palantir 13.8%market +3.2pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
3.9pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
12 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
11.6%Palantir 8.7%market +2.9pp
P 11.6
F 11.6
V 10.3
1.3pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
13 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
18.3%Palantir 15.6%market +2.7pp
P 18.3
F 17.0
V 14.1
4.2pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
14
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 5
13.7%Palantir 11.1%market +2.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
15 IN
CLE vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
11.3%Palantir 8.7%market +2.6pp
P 11.3
F 11.4
V 11.8
0.5pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
16 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
12.8%Palantir 10.5%market +2.3pp
P 12.8
F 11.6
V 9.1
3.6pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
17 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
15.1%Palantir 13.0%market +2.1pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 11.4
4.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
18 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
16.3%Palantir 14.2%market +2.1pp
P 16.3
F 22.3
V 14.4
7.8pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
19 IN
STL vs CINHunter Greene · slot 3
15.1%Palantir 13.3%market +1.8pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 17.0
1.9pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
20 IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
16.5%Palantir 14.7%market +1.8pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 14.0
2.5pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
21 IN
PIT vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
15.2%Palantir 13.5%market +1.8pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
22 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
14.8%Palantir 13.5%market +1.4pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 11.5
3.4pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
23 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
16.3%Palantir 15.0%market +1.3pp
P 16.3
F 14.9
V 15.5
1.4pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
24 IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
13.7%Palantir 12.5%market +1.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.6
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
25 IN
KC vs DETCasey Mize · slot 3
17.7%Palantir 16.7%market +1.0pp
P 17.7
F 22.3
V 20.5
4.5pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
26 IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
17.4%Palantir 16.4%market +1.0pp
P 17.4
F 22.3
V 13.8
8.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
27 IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
16.0%Palantir 15.0%market +1.0pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 12.4
3.6pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
28 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
14.4%Palantir 13.5%market +0.9pp
P 14.4
F 12.2
V 15.1
2.9pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
29 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
16.3%Palantir 15.5%market +0.8pp
P 16.3
F 11.6
V 16.2
4.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
30 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
16.9%Palantir 16.2%market +0.7pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 13.8
3.1pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
31
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
13.3%Palantir 12.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 11.7
1.6pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
32 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
14.1%Palantir 13.6%market +0.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.2
V 12.8
1.9pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
33 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
17.6%Palantir 17.2%market +0.4pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 13.7
3.9pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
14.1%Palantir 13.7%market +0.3pp
P 14.1
F 12.2
V 11.7
2.3pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
35 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
16.8%Palantir 17.2%market -0.4pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 16.1
1.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
36
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
14.8%Palantir 15.5%market -0.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
37
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
12.6%Palantir 13.4%market -0.8pp
P 12.6
F 7.4
V 9.5
5.2pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
38 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
13.8%Palantir 14.8%market -1.0pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
39 IN
KC vs DETCasey Mize · slot 5
11.7%Palantir 13.0%market -1.3pp
P 11.7
F 11.4
V 20.0
8.5pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
40 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
15.3%Palantir 18.4%market -3.1pp
P 15.3
F 12.2
V 15.6
3.4pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
41 IN
PIT vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
9.7%Palantir 7.7%market +2.0pp
P 9.7
F 8.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
13.4%Palantir 11.7%market +1.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 9.5
3.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
43 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
9.3%Palantir 7.7%market +1.6pp
P 9.3
F 9.6
V 8.5
1.1pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
MIA vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
8.9%Palantir 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 8.9
F 8.6
V 10.6
2.0pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
13.4%Palantir 13.1%market +0.3pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.6
1.2pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
46 IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
15.5%Palantir 16.3%market -0.8pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 13.4
2.1pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
47 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
7.2%Palantir 8.0%market -0.8pp
P 7.2
F 3.4
V 12.4
9.0pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
15.0%Palantir 15.9%market -0.8pp
P 15.0
F 12.2
V 13.8
2.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
49 IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
11.8%Palantir 12.8%market -1.0pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 11.4
0.8pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
15.7%Palantir 17.0%market -1.2pp
P 15.7
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.8pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
51 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
6.7%Palantir 8.0%market -1.3pp
P 6.7
F 2.3
V 10.9
8.6pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
52
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
16.0%Palantir 17.7%market -1.7pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 16.0
0.5pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
53 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
16.7%Palantir 18.5%market -1.8pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
54 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
16.0%Palantir 18.0%market -2.0pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 15.2
1.1pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
55 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
15.7%Palantir 17.7%market -2.0pp
P 15.7
F 13.6
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
56 IN
CLE vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
15.4%Palantir 17.5%market -2.1pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 14.1
2.1pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
57 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
11.7%Palantir 13.8%market -2.1pp
P 11.7
F 9.3
V 11.4
2.4pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
58 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
14.7%Palantir 17.0%market -2.2pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
59 IN
KC vs DETCasey Mize · slot 4
15.7%Palantir 18.0%market -2.3pp
P 15.7
F 14.9
V 20.1
5.1pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
60 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
12.8%Palantir 15.3%market -2.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 15.1
2.9pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
61 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
13.5%Palantir 16.0%market -2.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
62 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
16.2%Palantir 18.9%market -2.7pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 16.5
1.6pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
63 IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
16.1%Palantir 18.9%market -2.7pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.2pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
64 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
13.2%Palantir 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
65 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
15.2%Palantir 18.2%market -2.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
66 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
5.0%Palantir 8.0%market -3.0pp
P 5.0
F 0.0
V 7.4
7.4pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
67 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
14.1%Palantir 17.1%market -3.0pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 13.3
1.6pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
68 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
15.5%Palantir 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 16.0
0.5pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
69 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
13.8%Palantir 17.5%market -3.7pp
P 13.8
F 12.2
V 13.8
1.6pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
70 IN
CLE vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
16.7%Palantir 20.4%market -3.8pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.1pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
71 IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5
12.7%Palantir 16.5%market -3.8pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
3.5pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
72 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
13.0%Palantir 17.0%market -4.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 15.0
2.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
73 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
15.3%Palantir 19.4%market -4.1pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 13.2
2.1pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
74 IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
15.6%Palantir 19.8%market -4.2pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 16.7
1.2pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
75 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
13.2%Palantir 17.7%market -4.5pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.9pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
76 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
16.2%Palantir 21.7%market -5.6pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 15.6
1.3pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
77 IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
12.5%Palantir 18.2%market -5.6pp
P 12.5
F 11.4
V 17.3
5.9pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
78 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
14.9%Palantir 20.8%market -5.9pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 15.8
0.9pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
79 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
14.1%Palantir 20.2%market -6.1pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.4pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
80 Lineup pending
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
13.0%Palantir 19.2%market -6.2pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
81
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 4
14.5%Palantir 20.8%market -6.3pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 16.6
2.1pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
82 IN
PIT vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
15.5%Palantir 22.0%market -6.5pp
P 15.5
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
83 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
14.9%Palantir 22.0%market -7.0pp
P 14.9
F 15.5
V 13.3
2.2pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
84 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
15.3%Palantir 23.0%market -7.7pp
P 15.3
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
85 IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
13.7%Palantir 21.7%market -8.1pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 13.5
1.5pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
86 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
17.5%Palantir 26.3%market -8.8pp
P 17.5
F 12.2
V 14.2
5.3pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
87 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
13.0%Palantir 23.3%market -10.2pp
P 13.0
F 9.6
V 13.2
3.6pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
88 IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3
15.1%Palantir 26.0%market -10.9pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.1pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2316roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.