Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
88
Matched
315
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-25 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
KC vs DETCasey Mize · slot 5
20.0%Valinor 12.5%market +7.0pp
P 11.7
F 11.4
V 20.0
8.5pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02 IN
STL vs CINHunter Greene · slot 2
16.6%Valinor 12.5%market +3.6pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 16.6
1.1pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
03 IN
STL vs CINHunter Greene · slot 3
17.0%Valinor 13.3%market +3.2pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 17.0
1.9pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
04 IN
MIA vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
13.7%Valinor 10.1%market +3.2pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 13.7
1.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05 IN
KC vs DETCasey Mize · slot 3
20.5%Valinor 16.7%market +3.1pp
P 17.7
F 22.3
V 20.5
4.5pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
06 IN
CLE vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
11.8%Valinor 8.7%market +2.8pp
P 11.3
F 11.4
V 11.8
0.5pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
10.3%Valinor 8.7%market +1.3pp
P 11.6
F 11.6
V 10.3
1.3pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
08 IN
PIT vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
15.2%Valinor 13.5%market +1.2pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
15.1%Valinor 13.5%market +1.1pp
P 14.4
F 12.2
V 15.1
2.9pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 7
10.2%Valinor 9.6%market +0.3pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 10.2
3.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
11 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
16.2%Valinor 15.5%market +0.1pp
P 16.3
F 11.6
V 16.2
4.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
12 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
11.4%Valinor 11.2%market -0.3pp
P 15.2
F 15.5
V 11.4
4.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
13
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
15.2%Valinor 15.0%market -0.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
14 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 15.3%market -0.4pp
P 16.3
F 14.9
V 15.5
1.4pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
15 IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
12.6%Valinor 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.6
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
16 IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
10.1%Valinor 10.1%market -0.4pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 10.1
4.8pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
17 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
14.4%Valinor 14.4%market -0.5pp
P 16.3
F 22.3
V 14.4
7.8pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
18 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
9.0%Valinor 9.2%market -0.6pp
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 9.0
6.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
19
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 5
10.9%Valinor 11.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
20 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
12.4%Valinor 13.3%market -0.9pp
P 16.2
F 22.3
V 12.4
9.8pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
21 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
16.1%Valinor 16.7%market -1.2pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 16.1
1.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
22 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
10.2%Valinor 11.0%market -1.3pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 10.2
7.5pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
23 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 14.0%market -1.3pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
3.9pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
24 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 14.1
F 12.2
V 12.8
1.9pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
25 IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
14.0%Valinor 14.8%market -1.4pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 14.0
2.5pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
26 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 14.3%market -1.5pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
27 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 14.5%market -1.5pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 13.5
4.7pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
28
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
11.7%Valinor 13.3%market -1.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 11.7
1.6pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
29 IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
10.6%Valinor 11.8%market -1.7pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 10.6
4.7pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
30 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 10.6%market -1.9pp
P 12.8
F 11.6
V 9.1
3.6pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
31 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
11.4%Valinor 13.0%market -2.1pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 11.4
4.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
32 IN
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 16.0%market -2.4pp
P 18.3
F 17.0
V 14.1
4.2pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
33 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
11.5%Valinor 13.6%market -2.6pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 11.5
3.4pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
11.7%Valinor 14.4%market -2.6pp
P 14.1
F 12.2
V 11.7
2.3pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
35 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
15.6%Valinor 17.7%market -2.7pp
P 15.3
F 12.2
V 15.6
3.4pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
36 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
13.8%Valinor 16.4%market -3.2pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 13.8
3.1pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
37 IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
13.8%Valinor 16.7%market -3.4pp
P 17.4
F 22.3
V 13.8
8.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
38 IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
12.4%Valinor 15.3%market -3.5pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 12.4
3.6pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
39
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
9.5%Valinor 13.0%market -3.9pp
P 12.6
F 7.4
V 9.5
5.2pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
40 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 17.5%market -4.5pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 13.7
3.9pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
41 IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3
14.9%Valinor 25.5%market -11.4pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.1pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
42 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
12.4%Valinor 7.7%market +4.4pp
P 7.2
F 3.4
V 12.4
9.0pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
PIT vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
11.6%Valinor 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 9.7
F 8.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
10.9%Valinor 7.7%market +2.9pp
P 6.7
F 2.3
V 10.9
8.6pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIA vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
10.6%Valinor 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 8.9
F 8.6
V 10.6
2.0pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
KC vs DETCasey Mize · slot 4
20.1%Valinor 17.2%market +2.2pp
P 15.7
F 14.9
V 20.1
5.1pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
47 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
8.5%Valinor 7.7%market +0.5pp
P 9.3
F 9.6
V 8.5
1.1pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
15.1%Valinor 14.8%market -0.2pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 15.1
2.9pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
49 IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5
16.2%Valinor 16.1%market -0.5pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
3.5pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
50 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
7.4%Valinor 7.7%market -0.6pp
P 5.0
F 0.0
V 7.4
7.4pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
12.6%Valinor 13.1%market -1.0pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.6
1.2pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
52 IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
17.3%Valinor 17.7%market -1.1pp
P 12.5
F 11.4
V 17.3
5.9pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
53 IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
11.4%Valinor 12.3%market -1.4pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 11.4
0.8pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
15.5%Valinor 16.5%market -1.6pp
P 15.7
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.8pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
55
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
16.0%Valinor 17.2%market -1.9pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 16.0
0.5pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
56 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
15.0%Valinor 16.4%market -2.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 15.0
2.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
57 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
14.0%Valinor 15.5%market -2.0pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
58 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 15.6%market -2.0pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
59 IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 15.3%market -2.1pp
P 15.0
F 12.2
V 13.8
2.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
60 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
11.4%Valinor 13.3%market -2.4pp
P 11.7
F 9.3
V 11.4
2.4pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
61 IN
SD vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
16.5%Valinor 18.4%market -2.5pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 16.5
1.6pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
62 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
9.5%Valinor 11.7%market -2.7pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 9.5
3.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
63 IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 15.7%market -2.9pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 13.4
2.1pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
64 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
15.2%Valinor 17.4%market -2.9pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 15.2
1.1pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
65 IN
CHC vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
16.0%Valinor 18.2%market -2.9pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 16.0
0.5pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
66 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
14.0%Valinor 16.4%market -2.9pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
67 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
15.4%Valinor 18.1%market -3.2pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
68 IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
16.7%Valinor 19.3%market -3.3pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 16.7
1.2pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
69 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
15.0%Valinor 17.7%market -3.3pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
70 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.9pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
71 IN
CLE vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 14.1
2.1pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
72 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
14.0%Valinor 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 15.7
F 13.6
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
73 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 16.5%market -3.8pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 13.3
1.6pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
74 IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
13.8%Valinor 17.1%market -3.9pp
P 13.8
F 12.2
V 13.8
1.6pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
75 IN
PHI vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 18.4%market -3.9pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.2pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
76
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 4
16.6%Valinor 20.3%market -4.5pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 16.6
2.1pp 0.953xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
77 IN
CLE vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
15.5%Valinor 19.9%market -5.1pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.1pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
78 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
15.8%Valinor 20.3%market -5.3pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 15.8
0.9pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
79 IN
DET vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
14.6%Valinor 19.7%market -5.8pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.4pp 1.091xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
80 IN
ATL vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
15.6%Valinor 21.2%market -6.4pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 15.6
1.3pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
81 IN
NYM vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 18.9%market -6.4pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 13.2
2.1pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
82 IN
PIT vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
15.8%Valinor 21.5%market -6.4pp
P 15.5
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
83 Lineup pending
TEX vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
13.0%Valinor 18.8%market -6.4pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
84 IN
BAL vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
15.9%Valinor 22.4%market -7.4pp
P 15.3
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
85 IN
CIN vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 21.2%market -8.5pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 13.5
1.5pp 0.988xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
86 IN
TB vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 21.5%market -8.9pp
P 14.9
F 15.5
V 13.3
2.2pp 1.067xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
87 IN
CWS vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
13.2%Valinor 22.7%market -10.3pp
P 13.0
F 9.6
V 13.2
3.6pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
88 IN
SEA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 25.8%market -12.4pp
P 17.5
F 12.2
V 14.2
5.3pp 1.200xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2316roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.