Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-05 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
81
Matched
309
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-05 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
13.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +4.8pp
P 13.4
F 13.9
V 9.5
4.4pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02 IN
AZ vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.7
V 9.1
4.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.7pp
P 10.6
F 12.4
V 9.8
2.6pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
15.8%Fangorn 12.7%market +3.0pp
P 15.0
F 15.8
V 11.7
4.1pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
12.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.9pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 11.1
1.6pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
06 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
13.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.9pp
P 12.9
F 13.9
V 10.7
3.2pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 1
13.9%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 12.2
2.3pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
08 IN
MIA vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
12.7%Fangorn 10.1%market +2.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 10.0
2.9pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
09 IN
BOS vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
13.9%Fangorn 11.8%market +2.1pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 11.3
3.6pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
10
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
12.7%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.1pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 11.5
1.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
11 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12 IN
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
12.7%Fangorn 10.9%market +1.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 10.2
2.5pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
13 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
13.9%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.6pp
P 13.3
F 13.9
V 12.7
1.1pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
15.8%Fangorn 14.2%market +1.5pp
P 15.1
F 15.8
V 13.4
2.4pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
15 IN
STL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.4pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 12.2
3.0pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
16 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
11.7%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.2pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 8.9
2.7pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
17
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
12.7%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.0pp
P 13.2
F 12.7
V 12.7
0.5pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
18 IN
CWS vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
13.9%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.9pp
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 10.1
3.8pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 14.0
1.0pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
20 IN
STL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
13.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 12.8
1.4pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
21 IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6
12.5%Fangorn 12.9%market -0.4pp
P 11.5
F 12.5
V 10.4
2.1pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
22 IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 6
13.9%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 9.8
4.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
23 IN
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 13.1%market -0.6pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.8pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
24 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
13.2%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.6pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
25 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
12.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.7
V 14.1
1.3pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
26 IN
PIT vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
12.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 12.5
0.6pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
27 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 7
12.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -1.5pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 9.2
4.3pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
28 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
13.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 15.1
1.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
29
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.7
V 11.7
2.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30 IN
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
13.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.9pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 14.6
1.2pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
31 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 3
13.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
32 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.1pp
P 12.2
F 11.7
V 13.7
2.0pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
33 IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 12.3
1.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
34 IN
BOS vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.2pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 14.7
1.0pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.7
V 15.9
2.5pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
36 IN
BOS vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
37 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 16.4%market -2.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 12.9
1.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
38 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 13.0
1.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 14.9
1.0pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
40 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
13.7%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.0pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
41 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 18.2%market -4.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 16.7
3.0pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
42 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.7pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 16.2
2.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
43 IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
11.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 10.4
1.3pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
PIT vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
10.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 9.4
F 10.6
V 12.0
2.6pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIA vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
10.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 8.8
F 10.6
V 10.0
1.9pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
MIL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
12.7%Fangorn 10.0%market +2.7pp
P 11.8
F 12.7
V 10.7
2.0pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
47 IN
CWS vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
8.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +0.3pp
P 8.6
F 8.0
V 9.2
1.2pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
MIL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
12.5%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.5pp
P 11.7
F 12.5
V 12.9
1.2pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
49 IN
KC vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
11.5%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 10.6
F 11.5
V 16.6
6.0pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
12.7%Fangorn 14.7%market -2.0pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 11.8
1.3pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
51 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.3pp
P 12.1
F 13.7
V 13.1
1.6pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
52
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.9
V 10.3
3.6pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
53
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
12.7%Fangorn 15.4%market -2.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.7
V 12.0
0.8pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
54 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
13.9%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.9
V 15.2
1.5pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
55 IN
MIL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.4pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 13.9
0.4pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
56 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
13.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
57
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
13.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 15.1
1.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.9
V 13.6
0.3pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
59 IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
12.5%Fangorn 16.7%market -4.2pp
P 11.4
F 12.5
V 13.1
1.8pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
60 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
13.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
61 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
12.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 11.9
F 12.5
V 13.9
2.0pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
62 IN
AZ vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 12.2
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
13.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -4.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 14.4
0.5pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
64 IN
KC vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
12.7%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.0pp
P 13.5
F 12.7
V 17.8
5.1pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
65 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
13.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 14.0
0.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
66 IN
KC vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
12.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 18.7
5.9pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
67 IN
NYY vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.5pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 13.8
0.2pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
68 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 19.4%market -5.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
69 IN
LAA vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 19.8%market -5.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.9
V 14.7
0.8pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
70 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
13.2%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 14.9
1.8pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
71 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 2
13.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -6.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 17.4
3.5pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
72
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.7
V 14.6
1.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 13.0
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
74 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 7.4
F 0.0
V 6.9
7.3pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
75 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
13.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -8.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 12.5
1.7pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
76 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 14.6
1.4pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
77 IN
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
13.2%Fangorn 22.5%market -9.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
78 IN
CWS vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 23.3%market -10.8pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 11.7
0.8pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 11.4%market -11.4pp
P 10.4
F 0.0
V 11.0
11.0pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
80 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
13.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
81 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
13.7%Fangorn 29.0%market -15.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 18.6
5.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2525roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.