Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-05 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
81
Matched
309
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-05 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 15.0%market +1.6pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 9.8%market +1.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 11.1
1.6pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
9.8%Valinor 8.7%market +0.8pp
P 10.6
F 12.4
V 9.8
2.6pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
12.7%Valinor 11.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.2
F 12.7
V 12.7
0.5pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
05 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 1
12.2%Valinor 11.2%market +0.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 12.2
2.3pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
14.0%Valinor 13.0%market +0.5pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 14.0
1.0pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
11.5%Valinor 10.7%market +0.4pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 11.5
1.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
08 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
15.1%Valinor 14.1%market +0.4pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 15.1
1.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
09 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 13.5%market +0.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.7
V 14.1
1.3pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
12.7%Valinor 12.3%market -0.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.9
V 12.7
1.1pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 5
15.9%Valinor 15.5%market -0.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.7
V 15.9
2.5pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
12 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
13.7%Valinor 13.3%market -0.1pp
P 12.2
F 11.7
V 13.7
2.0pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
13 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
9.5%Valinor 9.2%market -0.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.9
V 9.5
4.4pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
14 IN
MIA vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
10.0%Valinor 10.2%market -0.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 10.0
2.9pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
15 IN
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
12.4%Valinor 13.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.8pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
16 IN
AZ vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
9.1%Valinor 9.5%market -0.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.7
V 9.1
4.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
17 IN
STL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
12.2%Valinor 12.5%market -0.8pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 12.2
3.0pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
18 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
10.7%Valinor 11.0%market -0.8pp
P 12.9
F 13.9
V 10.7
3.2pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
19 IN
BOS vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
11.3%Valinor 11.8%market -0.9pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 11.3
3.6pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
20 IN
STL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
12.8%Valinor 13.3%market -1.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 12.8
1.4pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
21 IN
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
10.2%Valinor 10.9%market -1.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 10.2
2.5pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
22 IN
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
14.6%Valinor 15.2%market -1.2pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 14.6
1.2pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
23 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
11.0%Valinor 11.7%market -1.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
24 IN
BOS vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
14.7%Valinor 15.3%market -1.2pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 14.7
1.0pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
13.4%Valinor 14.4%market -1.5pp
P 15.1
F 15.8
V 13.4
2.4pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
26 IN
PIT vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
12.5%Valinor 13.6%market -1.6pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 12.5
0.6pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
27 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
11.7%Valinor 13.3%market -1.6pp
P 15.0
F 15.8
V 11.7
4.1pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
28 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 4
16.7%Valinor 17.7%market -1.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 16.7
3.0pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
29 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
12.2%Valinor 13.6%market -2.0pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.6pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
14.9%Valinor 16.4%market -2.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 14.9
1.0pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
31 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
8.9%Valinor 10.6%market -2.1pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 8.9
2.7pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
32 IN
BOS vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 15.7%market -2.1pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
33 IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6
10.4%Valinor 12.4%market -2.5pp
P 11.5
F 12.5
V 10.4
2.1pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
34 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 17.1%market -2.8pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
35 IN
CWS vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
10.1%Valinor 13.0%market -3.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 10.1
3.8pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
36 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 15.8%market -3.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 12.9
1.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
37 IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
12.3%Valinor 15.3%market -3.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 12.3
1.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
38 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
13.0%Valinor 16.2%market -3.8pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 13.0
1.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
39
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
11.7%Valinor 15.0%market -3.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.7
V 11.7
2.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
40 IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 6
9.8%Valinor 13.8%market -4.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 9.8
4.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
41 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 7
9.2%Valinor 13.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 9.2
4.3pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
42 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
18.6%Valinor 28.4%market -10.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 18.6
5.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
43 IN
PIT vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
12.0%Valinor 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 9.4
F 10.6
V 12.0
2.6pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
KC vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
16.6%Valinor 12.5%market +3.6pp
P 10.6
F 11.5
V 16.6
6.0pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
45 IN
CHC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
10.4%Valinor 7.7%market +2.4pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 10.4
1.3pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
MIA vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
10.0%Valinor 7.7%market +1.9pp
P 8.8
F 10.6
V 10.0
1.9pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
CWS vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
9.2%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 8.6
F 8.0
V 9.2
1.2pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
KC vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
18.7%Valinor 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 18.7
5.9pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
49 IN
MIL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
10.7%Valinor 10.0%market +0.4pp
P 11.8
F 12.7
V 10.7
2.0pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
50 IN
KC vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
17.8%Valinor 16.9%market +0.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.7
V 17.8
5.1pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
51 IN
MIL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
12.9%Valinor 12.5%market -0.1pp
P 11.7
F 12.5
V 12.9
1.2pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
11.0%Valinor 11.0%market -0.4pp
P 10.4
F 0.0
V 11.0
11.0pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
53 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
6.9%Valinor 7.7%market -1.1pp
P 7.4
F 0.0
V 6.9
7.3pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
54 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
15.2%Valinor 16.5%market -1.9pp
P 13.7
F 13.9
V 15.2
1.5pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
55
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
15.1%Valinor 17.2%market -2.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 15.1
1.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
56 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 16.5%market -2.9pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
11.8%Valinor 14.2%market -3.0pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 11.8
1.3pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
58 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 16.4%market -3.0pp
P 11.9
F 12.5
V 13.9
2.0pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
59 IN
TOR vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
14.7%Valinor 17.1%market -3.0pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
13.1%Valinor 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 12.1
F 13.7
V 13.1
1.6pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
61 IN
MIL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
13.9%Valinor 16.7%market -3.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 13.9
0.4pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
62
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
12.0%Valinor 14.9%market -3.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.7
V 12.0
0.8pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
63 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
16.2%Valinor 19.1%market -3.6pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 16.2
2.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
64 IN
HOU vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 2
17.4%Valinor 20.3%market -3.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 17.4
3.5pp 1.124xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
65 IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
13.1%Valinor 16.2%market -3.7pp
P 11.4
F 12.5
V 13.1
1.8pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
66 IN
NYM vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
15.7%Valinor 18.9%market -4.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
67 IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
14.4%Valinor 18.1%market -4.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 14.4
0.5pp 0.948xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
68 IN
LAD vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
14.0%Valinor 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 14.0
0.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
COL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
13.6%Valinor 17.4%market -4.5pp
P 13.9
F 13.9
V 13.6
0.3pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
70 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 18.8%market -4.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 14.9
1.8pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
71 IN
LAA vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
14.7%Valinor 19.3%market -5.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.9
V 14.7
0.8pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
72 IN
NYY vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 18.6%market -5.5pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 13.8
0.2pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
73
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
10.3%Valinor 15.7%market -5.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.9
V 10.3
3.6pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
74 IN
AZ vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
12.2%Valinor 17.9%market -6.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 12.2
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
75
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 20.3%market -6.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.7
V 14.6
1.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
76 IN
CIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
15.6%Valinor 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
77 IN
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
14.6%Valinor 21.2%market -7.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 14.6
1.4pp 0.991xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
13.0%Valinor 20.5%market -8.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 13.0
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
79 IN
TB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
12.5%Valinor 21.5%market -9.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 12.5
1.7pp 1.070xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
80 IN
PHI vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
16.0%Valinor 26.5%market -11.4pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
81 IN
CWS vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 3
11.7%Valinor 22.7%market -11.8pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 11.7
0.8pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2525roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.