Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
73
Matched
273
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-09-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6
12.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 10.8
F 12.4
V 7.5
5.0pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02 IN
MIL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.4pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 10.9
1.2pp 1.092xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 IN
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6
12.4%Fangorn 9.1%market +3.3pp
P 11.4
F 12.4
V 8.6
3.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
04 IN
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 8.9%market +3.0pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 9.1
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.6pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 8.5
3.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
06 IN
STL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 10.4%market +2.0pp
P 12.2
F 12.4
V 8.7
3.7pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
11.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.9pp
P 10.2
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.5pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
08 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 11.2%market +1.4pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 10.8
2.6pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.8pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 10.0
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
10 IN
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.7pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 10.6
2.4pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11 IN
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
11.7%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.6pp
P 15.9
F 11.7
V 8.8
7.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
12 IN
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
11.9%Fangorn 11.3%market +0.6pp
P 9.9
F 11.9
V 9.4
2.4pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
13 IN
BOS vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 12.0%market +0.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.6
V 10.2
2.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
12.6%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.3pp
P 11.2
F 12.6
V 11.3
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
15 IN
BOS vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
11.9%Fangorn 12.3%market -0.4pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 9.4
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
16 IN
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.4pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 10.5
3.4pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
14.1%Fangorn 14.6%market -0.5pp
P 16.4
F 14.1
V 11.2
5.2pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.8pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.0pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
19 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.0pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 9.5
4.7pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
20 IN
MIL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.0pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.3pp 1.092xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 12.8%market -1.0pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 12.8
2.0pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
22 IN
STL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.1pp
P 16.1
F 12.6
V 11.3
4.8pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
23
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
12.1%Fangorn 13.3%market -1.2pp
P 13.6
F 12.1
V 12.1
1.5pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
11.7%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.4pp
P 11.6
F 11.7
V 12.0
0.4pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
25 IN
TB vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
14.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.4pp
P 14.6
F 14.1
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
12.6%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 10.9
2.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
27 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
12.1%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 13.4
F 12.1
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
28 IN
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.2
1.7pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
29
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
11.1%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.3pp
P 11.7
F 11.1
V 10.8
0.9pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
11.3%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.5pp
P 10.7
F 11.3
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 14.5%market -2.8pp
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 10.5
1.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 15.4%market -3.0pp
P 14.1
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
33 IN
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.2
2.8pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
34 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
35 IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 15.4%market -3.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.1
V 13.2
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
36 IN
MIL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
12.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.4pp
P 15.1
F 12.9
V 14.0
2.2pp 1.092xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
37 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 13.2
1.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
38 IN
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
11.7%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.6pp
P 13.1
F 11.7
V 13.9
2.2pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
39 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
12.1%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.9pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 13.4
1.6pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
40 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
12.1%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.8pp
P 14.1
F 12.1
V 11.6
2.5pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
41 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
42 IN
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 17.9%market -5.3pp
P 15.7
F 12.6
V 14.4
3.2pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
43 IN
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.1pp
P 14.9
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.4pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
44 IN
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 6.2
F 10.9
V 12.4
6.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 7
10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 6.6
F 10.3
V 9.4
3.8pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 5.8
F 9.9
V 8.9
4.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.1
F 9.9
V 8.9
3.8pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.3pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.9
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
49 IN
BOS vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.6pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
50 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -4.3pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 11.5
1.0pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
51 IN
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 12.9
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
52 IN
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.8pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 11.3
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
53 IN
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 12.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
54 IN
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.3pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.7pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.1
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
56 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
12.1%Fangorn 18.2%market -6.0pp
P 13.5
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
57 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
11.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.6pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 12.1
0.9pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
58 IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
12.1%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 14.3
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
59 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.0pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
60 IN
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.0pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.1pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
61 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -7.2pp
P 13.0
F 11.9
V 12.2
1.1pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
62
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
11.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.5pp
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 10.2
1.5pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
63 IN
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
12.1%Fangorn 20.4%market -8.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 12.4
0.7pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
64 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
65 IN
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
11.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -9.0pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 15.1
3.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
66 IN
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
12.4%Fangorn 21.5%market -9.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 12.2
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
67 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.2pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
2.7pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.9pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
69 IN
TB vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 22.7%market -10.2pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 14.5
1.9pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
70
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 24.1%market -10.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.6
V 14.0
0.5pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
71 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
11.7%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.7
V 11.4
0.4pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
72 IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 26.0%market -14.1pp
P 12.1
F 11.9
V 14.1
2.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
73 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 29.8%market -17.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 16.9
4.5pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.